Saturday October 19, 2014: Today we are employing my basic strategy, 3 horses in each race, a favorite and some outsiders that could lead to the big payoff. #3 and #4 are our top choices, 4 because we get a weight break under Van Dyke and 3 the morning line favorite. The outsider we are throwing in is #10 Myself. Alex Solis is riding and the last race for this horse was not bad and it could be a nice upset start to the pick 4. In the 7th we are going with #6,7 and 10. I am staying away from the Baffert trained #9 as I have had no luck with Baffert/Garcia and will let them beat me if need be. #6 was scratched so we will go with the morning line favorite here #7. #11 is a horse that completed a pk 4 earlier this year for us. #7 is our reach for the skies play here. In the final race #11 with Van Dyke looks live. I have no clear preferences here so I am going to go with my favorite jockey Talamo and hoping for an upset the double with Perez using number 4.
Sunday October 20, 2014: Race 6 is a tricky start to the Pick 4 today. The Hillside turf course is usually my nemesis so today we are going to mix it up and go with 4 horses. #3 is a 1st time Euro starter and you will learn I always put those in. #7 Red Outlaw is the clear favorite here but I also have an affinity for Irish horses and the last race from #8 was not bad. Joe Talamo is on fire on the turf course so #5 is a must use. Lets get out of the 1st leg. This may be a favorites day and a low payout but as we are planning on singling in the last we can spread here too in the 7th. #4 is the logical choice but lets add 8,9 and 10 in hopes of a big payoff. The 8th is an interesting race. The morning line betting shows no clear favorite so we are going to spread here too. I threw in number #10 because the other entrant from Mora is in for a price and this one is protected and it pays to play at least one of the 2 horse entrants. #2,3,4,5 should get us thru to the final race In the final race given we went do deep to get here we will go with the favorite #7. This is an all or one race so we are sticking to one horse. If the favorites all win this strategy should bring us $60-70 in wins for our $40 bet. If we get a bomb the fun begins!
Saturday, October 24,2014: You KNOW it was a bombs away day yesterday when there is a Pick 6 carryover AND the consolation Pick 4 payment was for 4 out of 6! Yikes! We didn’t even make it out of the 1st leg. Today’s late Pick 4 is no easier and starts off with our nemesis the downhill turf course! We will start with the morning line fav #5 with Joe Talamo who is doing very well on the turf at this meet. #7 is an older horse but he has won 4 times at this distance at Santa Anita. We
could use many more in this race and I'm tempted to but with no sure singles in the other legs we have to stick to the normal plan. #8 is 3 for 4,on the dirt, the only lose coming off an extended layoff. #4 is a possibility BUT Maxx seems to prefer the longest distances even though Bejarano is on board. In the 6th we are going with #5 with Mike Smith on board. He has been cold this meet but is very overdue for one of his win streaks. I don't usually like horses coming off a layoff. #3 is another Mora horse that is moving down in class. With his boss suspended Mora is tearing it up with a 27% win rate. ANother toss up race we could use more so we will go with #7 #4 is moving down in class in the 8th with bug-boy and we are getting a nice price. The other Proctor horse is #6. When good trainers send out 2 horses its always a coin flip as to which one is the live one so we will use both. #7 is 3 for 3 on turf including her last here. #7 is another Mora moving down in class. Who else thinks Mora is out to prove a point and rip off lots of winners into the end of the meet for his boss? At 5 half furlongs we are looking for gate to wire potential and the #2, also dropping showed early speed last time. #3 also has early speed as well. UPDATE - #4 scratched so we are adding #8
Friday October 24, 2014 :We got skunked yesterday, getting knocked out in the 1st leg finishing 2nd and 3rd. The Friday Late Pick 4 begins in race 5. Today we are using our 3x3x3x3 approach for $40.50. #6,7 and 10 are the selections. The #7 ran a great race last time to finish second. #6 is the speed of the field based on past races with a possible gate to wire angle and the added appeal of bug-boys weight allowance. In the 6th its Irish day again. #6 had a great US start I thought at Del Mar but as mentioned before the Del mar turf course was not friendly to Irish horses this summer. I also like the #1 as our outsider Irish play. We will use #3 as well with bug-boy. Act is the speed of the race and speed is winning on this distance at the meet. UPDATE -add #5 In the 7th we are going with 3,5 and #7. Bejarano on the #3, a horse that is 3 for 7 here and the morning line fav is a must use. #7 I am hoping we get a price on it. The win at Del Mar could be repeated here. #5 with Talamo in the reigns and 2 for 3 is a must use. The last race is a tough one, anyone could win race. We are going with the tepid fav #11 but Talamo jumped off to ride our other selection#7. I'm feeling luck today and in this race we have #1 Lucky Shoes To Win! UPDATE - add #9, the other Mullins entry
Thursday October 23, 2014:
Today's late pick 4 starts in the 5th race at a mile 1/8. We are going to do our normal spread today of 3 horses in each race. #1 Miltee closed strong in its last race looking like the added ground will benefit. Mike Smith jumps on the Cassidy trained #2. Mike has been cold so far at Santa Anita but the added distance may be what the doctor ordered here. #5 is the morning line fav with Bejarano onboard so a must use. In the 6th race we are going with 1,6,7. The #1 is a horse we have won with before and I like it in this race. Bejarano is on the 7 the morning line favorite and using our strategy is a must use. #6 gets a weight break under Van Dyke on the added distance and with no drop in price since the last race it could be live. The 7th race has #4,an Irish horse that ran very well in England and had a bad trip in the last here. I'm ignoring the performance at Del Mar because the turf course was anti-Irish this summer. The morning line fav is #2 and carries the highest power rating of the field. I'm adding in #1 as well at 9/5 BUT going 4 deep here may be advisable. It's hard for me to not play #6 Irish Presence. (UPDATE: 1 scratched so add 6) In the last rave you could swing and go with a single in #3 the favorite. There is also a lot of chatter on the #9 so we will add him in. Our price play is going to be the #1 who has won a 3rd of its races on smaller tracks and is offering 8-1. (UPDATE: #1 scratched so add #2,) Good luck today!