The last day of 2016 hopefully we end like it started for us with some nice big wins! I really like today’s card and it has some fantastic longshot set-ups. We have some very big fields today and in the small fields at first pass there looked to be a couple of free spots to help keep the ticket prices down but after digging in I am not so sure, which of course means some nice pays are afoot today. The 1st leg of the Pick 4 today has a 7/2 favorite Irap from O’Niell/Reddam who Gutierrez has ridden in all races but not today even after a 2nd and a bobble in the last. Prat hops on and he is 29% with O’Niell but this is a possible vulnerable lukewarm favorite to start the Pick 4 today. Also note no posted works either since that Dec 10th race.
Rain in the forecast will make this an even tougher card today but today I am spending some extra coin as I like the potential!
For this 56 day meet I have some new options – the full meet is 60% off right now. You also have the choice of a monthly rate for 40% off. Click the link below to chose the plan that best suits you!
In the Pick 5 today I debated using St. Joe Bay with Desormeaux riding as a single. In the last 2 days Kent has blown up our Pick 5 tickets so payback time for us! A dominating win last out for Miller moving up in class today and this tandem is winning 44%. Bejarano rides Navy Hymn who shortens up after a 3rd place last out and a 5th prior in a G3 but works are so-so. Jimmy Bouncer is looking for the 3rd straight win and is 2-2 at Santa Anita and also comes in with a sharp work and the O’Neill/Reddam/Gutierrez connection is potent. After writing this I decided to go two deep add this horse in on the Pick 5.
I need a single in the Pick 4 today is in race 8 Queen Blossom a 1st time Irish starter 1st time Lasix, 1st race since May. Regular works since October, Rosario takes the mount for Motion
Longshots of the Day: Win/place bets on these
Race 1: XXX
Race 2: XXX
Race 4: Frenzied, at 6-1 I believe today’s distance is ideal at 6-1 for an upset of a vulnerable 9/5 favorite, we connected yesterday betting against the Baffert “sure thing”, they may try to steal this race on the front end and a soggy turf course if it stays on is nothing new for this UK horse. If you want extra coverage in this race Ryans Charm with Bejarano riding had won 6 in a row before running 6th in his US debut so 2nd start US angle is in play here
Race 6: XXXXXX
Race 7: Bolita Boyz picks up Prat for Dorf after Rosario chooses to ride the favorite in here, added distance looks perfect at 8-1
Race 8: XXXXX
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $48 with horses listed in preference.
Races 1-5 selections and also for $48 Pick 5
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”