12-29-2015

A rare day of racing on Wednesday begins a nice 5 day streak. We came close on opening weekend but not close enough. You will never see my bets over $45 so feel free to add to subtract to suit your bankroll! The fields are a little smaller today and there are horses we can take a stand on so lets end a very profitable year of handicapping on a winning note!

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We start the sequence today in race 5 going 6 1/2 on the dirt for $10k claimers (hey at least their not $8k claimers!) These types of races are not usually easy but this race is typically a favorites race with the fav winning 33% of 46 races and 85% of the time its a price under 5-1. The top two choices here are #1 Carlot Cowboy and #3 Formally Wild. The favorite is 5/2 Formally Wild who is dropping slightly off a win last out at $12.5k and is looking for his 3rd win in a row. He won at $8k, won at $12.5k so why not $10k today. He is a front runner who has won at a mile and at 7 furlongs so the shorter distance today should be even better. His last two he won gate to wire from post 1, post 2 and today post 3? Carlot Cowboy is rising in class after winning last out at the mile distance 3 weeks ago for $8k. He has a win and 3 seconds from the last 4 starts so if you chose to single Formally Wild Carlot is a play on trifectas etc.

The 9/5 favorite in leg 2 is #5 Sunday Rules who has won 6 of 7 with the lone loss in a G2 in July. 2 for 3 at the distance she is the logical favorite. Gate to wire with Smith riding is very likely.

We went lite in the first two legs so we can spread a bit in this race. We had a Euro firster knock us out on Sunday when I uncharacteristically did not use so I will use #5 Nancy From Nairobi with Lezcano riding. This horse was carrying a small village on her back over the last 4 races (132-140 pounds!) and gets a weight break from those British races of 15 pounds today and won at this distance last out. We get 6-1 a great price to see. #7 Spirit of Ten won three in a row before hitting the shelf in September and came back in November to run 6th, dying in the stretch going 1/16th longer. #4 Causeway Caroline has been no worst than 4th in her last 6 races including 2 wins. A best of 83 workout Christmas Eve jumps out. #8 Paulina’s Love is dropping down from Graded Stakes races, her last being a second place finish in a G3. Stevens jumps on to replace Baze who chose to stick with Spirit of Ten. D’Amato races two horse in here, Spirit of Ten and #1 Havanna Belle with Bejarano riding. 4 starts at this distance have returned 2 wins a second and third. 6-1 for Bejarano is hard to ignore and she’s a closer in a race where we have some early speed horses.

In the last leg Eurton stretches out #1 She’s a Warrior off a 3rd and second running shorter with main man Guiterrez riding. This race is won by horses under 5-1 12 of 14 times raced. Mike Smith has a habit of winning on horses he shouldn’t lately and he rides #7 Floripa today at 8-1. He knocked us out on Saturday on a horse that should not have won so I will use him today! This horse raced 4th last out closing from 9th in the stretch going 6 1/2. The added distance today can only help as long as Smith doesn’t have her sitting in Del Mar in the stretch. Hollendorfer races two in this race but the one I will land on is ridden by Bejarano, #5 Ceeme Run Wild. 2nd three weeks ago and in the money all 3 starts we have to use.

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $15 with horses listed in preference.

3,1

5

5,7,4,8,1

1,7,5

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Happy Handicapping!

Pick 5 will cost $16

4,2

6

5,2

3,7,8,9

3,1