12/28/2014

So much for thinking the Pick 4 would pay big yesterday with favorites dominating the late sequence and producing a $46 pay-off that really I should have had. Still, the low pay-off yesterday is proof yet again that sticking to our low-priced ticket approach is the way to play. 1st time Irish started Earnest let us down but Pimpernel did redeem itself with a win. Let’s see what today brings.

The 6th AND the 8th race are on my nemesis, the downhill turf course making this pick 4 sequence in my mind even more difficult! I am of course using the morning line fav #4 Snowday. If you are considering singling Snowday then you may also have to consider strongly #6 in the 8th race Ankeny Hill who beat Snowday last out. #7 U.S. Citizen is always in the mix so I will use him as well. #10 Royal FJ is also a must use in this sequence and really likes this downhill turf course with 4 wins and finishing in the top 3 60% of the time.

So which Baffert entrant is the live one in the 7th? #1 Global Hottie with Garcia or the morning line favorite #2 Awesome Baby with Mike Smith on board. I am going to have to go with #1 simply because #2 has not run in 9 months and scratched out of a higher priced race to run here. Warm-up race for #2? I am also going to use #8 Tribal Girl.

The 8th race is the second on my nemesis, the downhill turf course, but at least today we have a pro at this distance racing, #9 Bettys Bambino who is 3 for 4 on this course. The morning line favorite is #1 Sweet Swap who dominated here earlier in the year before a 7-month layoff when she returned and placed second at Del Mar. Sweet is also 4-9 at this distance here. # 11 Lil Bit O’Fun has two firsts and a 3rd on this downhill course this year and also scores Bejarano so I am going to use him as well. If you are looking for a price in this race #10 Play Hard to Get at 20-1 despite going 2 for 3 on longer on the turf could be a surprise. It seems that unless I pick a lot of horses in the downhill turf course leg I don’t make it out and if I do the favorite wins! #6 Ankeny Hill is another you could use. As I mentioned in the 6th race Ankeny Hill beat the morning line fav Snowday in their last together. Sharp works over the last 2 weeks for this frontrunner but the downhill course is one where speed gets swallowed up usually in the mad sprint for the finish.

In the final leg race #9 I am going to use #8, Congrats Seattle the morning line favorite who is dropping and picks up my man Talamo. #4 Whiskey Wild is another dropper second time on Lasix for a trainer that does well with these. I am also going to use the #5 Oh Newman who has finished 3rd in his lace two and may be ready for a trip to the winners circle.

Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $36, three by two by four by three.

4,7,10

1,8

1,6,9,11

4,5,8

Good luck today!