Columbus day brings us an extra day of racing fun today. We were gone in the first leg yesterday as our top three choices did nothing. The Euro import finished last just to rub salt in the wounds!
We start off today on the Hillside course where the favorite #1 Tiz a Billy at 5/2 is a horse who has never won and who Bejarano rode last time and does not today! Dropping in class today and shortening up but a very vulnerable favorite it seems. He has lost to Hollywood Don in the last two races which is probably why the enthusiasm is here but the inside post on the Hillside course is a big disadvantage. I would not be surprised if he scratches later. Bejarano decides to stick with #5 I’m Not Bullish who ran 8th in his debut but was well bet on dirt. He has turf in his blood and his last race produced two next out winners. Bejarano and Eurton are winning 43% of their races. Baffert sends out #10 Collected today with some sharp works but that is not uncommon for Baffert.
The favorite in the second leg today is #7 Juansagain who won last out after a second prior to that. Juan put in a fast workout on October 2nd. He did similar prior to his last win. This is not an easy race to handicap as half the field is coming in here off maiden 20 wins and rising in class. #3 El Monterey has finished in the money all three starts including a win last off from off the pace. The late kick should serve him well today on the stretch-out to 7 furlongs. I was looking at #5 Players Charm who won last out but Perez who rode last out went with #1 Warren’s T. Baze and so will I! Cutting back from a mile on turf race last out we get a good price in a tough race for a trainer who is 18% on sprint to route.
The favorite in race 8 is #3 Chiropractor from the Procter barn but Stevens does not ride, Van Dyke does. He has ridden him 3 of 4 starts so perhaps its not worth reading into. Jules Journey #7 always gives you a run for your money but its usually for 2nd or third. I’ve used him in every race he has run so if I don’t use him today he will win! You always have to pay attention to who Bejarano rides and in this race its #6 Patentar has been a disappointment thus far since coming to the States but did finish third last out so perhaps and the cutback third off a layoff is something handicappers look for. #8 Yes Yes Yes won last out off a big late kick at this distance and is always around the line including 2 wins and a second and third from 6 starts this year. This jockey/trainer is also 43%. (UPDATE #6 scratched)
The last leg today is a maiden special weight and the betting says its a one horse race with #12 Wade. After him the next closest price is 4-1. Bejarano rides for Eurton and they are 2 of 3. This is the second start off a long layoff but this horse had the last race in the bag and let his opponent re-rally to win. Hard to single a horse who does not have the will to win. Eurton does have some nice win stats like 26% beaten favorite, 20% second off a layoff. Wade is a must use but not a bankable single in my opinion especially at the low price. So who else do we use in here? When a race is as tricky as this I usually look for stats and jockeys. Talamo who has been heating up rides #4 Diablo Cabellero who is coming in off a 47 day break. Some of this horses best races though have come off breaks. Baze rides #7 Bench Rules who put in a bullet work on October 2nd (2nd fastest of 102). Trainer Ellis is 32% off a break as well and at 10-1 a very attractive price!
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 horses listed in preference
Race 1-5 rankings
Well my Best Bet ran second again yesterday. The good thing is all these second places have put me close to the top in the Showvivor Contest! Today I am looking at #4 Bayonet in race 3. She dropped to this level last time and won but was disqualified for interference. Trainer Eurton is on fire right now. In race 4 Smith rides Forest Chatter who is 4 for 4 on the Hill. He also rode 2 others in here to wins or seconds in their last races and sticks with Forest off two 5 furlong sprint disappointments at Del Mar. Possible tri box 6,1,4.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Good Luck today!