Well the last couple of days at Santa Anita has told us one thing – small tickets are not going to get the job done. I have been trying to keep the tickets small and the 3rd favorites have been beating our bombs in the stretch. In the first leg yesterday the Euro import Mirage would have won that race if our other choice in the race Tiz Jolie had not interfered. The big positive from that race is that the Euro imports 1st start in US angle appears to be back in play.
The first leg today is another toughie with the lowest priced horse coming in at 4-1! That favorite is #10 Circling ridden by Bejarano. Circling ran up for second last out after a couple of races at 1 3/8ths so today’s distance should be perfect. We have a firster today from Euro so after my spiel in the intro we of course have to use. That 1st timer is #4 Striding Out but a jockey who loves to run second is riding unfortunately. 1st time Lasix and good workouts since arriving in the states in August we get a good price to see if the Euro theory does indeed hold water! Callaghan also races #5 Hiking who bounced last out and may pop today but the distance is a question. Stevens and Callaghan though are 3 of 6 this year.
In race 7 we have a possible single in #5 Kafister who absolutely loves this track with 6 of 11 wins here. Jumping in class today but there is a sharp workout last week where he was 1st of 71 horses. #4 Athens legs up Talamo and is another horse that loves this track with 3 wins from 5 starts. This is a race where the favorite wins half the time and at a price under 5-1 so not a place to shop for a price. The 3rd choice has been our downfall in some sequences of late so I will also use #6 Well Measured who won last out for this successful Espinoza/Miller team.
The favorite in race 8 is #1 Lemhill Basr from the Baffert/Garcia tandem. Baffert won one of two for his wife yesterday so no couch for him last night. Well bet in her debut but it was at Los Al even though she cost $800k. Baffert is 32% off a maiden win. The added half furlong appears fine after that last race. Workouts are slow for Baffert which is a reason I did not use in the debut race at Los Al but she dominated them. #8 Miss Big Stuff won against males in her debut. #4 Surfside Tiara won big at Del Mar then jumped in class and ran 6th. Back down in class today and cuts back to what appears an ideal distance for her. This is another race where the favorite wins a high percentage at a lower price so no bomb shopping here!
The last leg is a mile on turf. I like the #5 Housemaker and today she picks up Talamo. She flew late in her last to get 3rd and if Talamo can position her better today she’s sitting on a win. #7 Ticabo drops today with a sharp workout last week, 2 of 68 on the day. Circling who we are using in Race 6 beat her that day. The drop today makes her a strong contender. This race however is one where bombs rule as the favorite only wins 16% and 56% of the time the horse is priced over 5-1! Also with the lowest price 7/2 that verifies this stat! For that price I am going to use #9 Rocking Rhythm who is rising in class after a dead heat last out. From 3 starts Rockin has a win and two seconds and tries turf for the first time today but has G1 pedigree. Rockin also runs protected so they see something here.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 horses listed in preference
I need to rename my Best Bet to best horse to come in second! Today I am looking at #5 Unbridled Rocket in race 1. Two seconds and a third she stretches out today with Talamo riding.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Good Luck today!