We got the first leg and the single in the last leg with Bejarano (as well as our second choice running second for a fat exacta pay) but that was it for yesterday but again the bet was small. Today brings us the $500k Guaranteed Pick 4 that is capped off by the Hillside course so the pays today could be very nice!
The 3-1 morning line favorite in the 1st leg today is #5 Jakaby Jade and invader from England who actually won first out here in the States at Del Mar last month, something that used to occur regularly and a betting strategy of mine until last year when the imports couldn’t win a one horse race! Bejarano picks up the mount from injured Prat. The 3rd place horse in that race won a G1 next out validating that impressive win and removing a little fear of a bounce second time out here. I am also going to use another firster from Ireland in this race, the #3 Mirage. Mirage won a stakes race similar to Jackaby in England in June before moving out here. She was well bet in that debut and has worked good since coming here so the hope here is we are back to Euro turf horses coming to the States and dominating again! I would still like some extra coverage here so I will also use the Stevens horse #7 Lucky Folie. She is moving from sprint to route and dirt to turf but she has turf in her blood and put in sharp work last week. Also like the top choice the second place finisher from her last race won next out.
We get a maiden special weight for the second leg today and the favorite is ridden by Smith who in his debut came from Tijuana and went 8 wide, yes you read that right 8 wide, to get the lead and then get caught on the wire. Perhaps he will have the favorite positioned better today. I’d love to single but I can’t. There are only 2 second time starters in this race so a newbie is what we will use. This race is won by horses over 5-1 more than 50% of the time. Baffert races two in here but the better of the 2 on paper is #6 Dr. Dorr. A fast workout last week but Baffert works all his horses fast and most of the time it means naught. However, Baffert’s wife owns this horse. Placed here so he wont have to sleep on the couch tonight?
Race 9 brings us the shortest price of the sequence in #5 Brimstoned. Brimstoned is looking for his 3rd straight win. He lost his first 4 races, was gelded and since then has been a different horse (in a couple of ways!). He is raising in class today and will have company up front possibly setting the race up for a closer. #9 Prince Charmant is a tough one to crack. Almost there each of his last starts. The horse is fighter but seems to always run into a slightly better horse. Talamo does hop on today though. #2 Wings of Mojave is 2 of 3 and the distance seems right today. Prat rode last out and if he was riding today you can be sure we would not be getting 15-1.
To the Hillside course we go for the last leg! A number of horses in here have done well on the Hill earlier in the year making this a very tough race. The favorite has won this race only 4 times from 28 races! The favorite here is a Baffert dropper the #10 Turnover who ran second to a two time winner. Baffert’s wife owns this horse too. Dropping for the money and moving on? Bob better get the wins today or its the couch! Bejarano rides #11 Ain’t No Other who has run decent here in the past like many others. I am siding with this one over a couple of other past winners on the Hill simply because of Bejarano. He had to have had other choices in here. #6 Giant Ego is dropping off a second place finish last out. and ran 2nd his last time racing on the hill in December 2014. Tough, tough end to today’s sequence!
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference
Pick 5 will cost $18
My Best Bet today is in race #1 Send Me A Sign. She flew from the clouds in a 6 half furlong race last out to run second to Pleasant As Pie the odds on favorite in race 4. The added distance today should be perfect.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Good Luck today!