05-16-2015

It was another rain soaked race day but this time we only managed 3/4 on the Pick 4 and it was surprisingly another low payoff with no real outsiders, pretty rare for an off track. Early post time today with the Preakness. Talamo had a big day yesterday and could be gearing up for a heater. He got very hot this time last year so watch what mounts he rides near term.

I will use #3 Cuddle Alert in the first leg today, race #8. Third in her debut and second last month. She is jumping in class however. Miller sends out two in this race, the favorite #12 Forbidden Command who finished 2nd at 21-1 in her debut. Miller also sends first timer #9 Mums Forest with Baze riding. Hot trainer I will use both entries. This is a tough sequence to start the Pk4.

In race 9 when I was going over the form before looking at any prices the two horses that jumped out at me where #2 Big Break and #7 Belle Of The Fleet. Now that I look I see both are nice prices of 10-1 and 8-1? Big Break won March 14, was second last month and posted a bullet work on May 2. All that and 10-1, yes thank you! #7 Belle has won 2 of 3, the one loss being on synthetic up north. She also runs protected today as well. 8-1 on this filly, again thank you! I will also throw in the favorite #5 Suzy Malibu with Bejarano riding. This is her first start since last June but the betting says its a one horse race with Suzy. I’ll use in case they are right but have prices as a backup! (UPDATE: Suzy has scratched: Talamo rides #8 Shapely but this seems like a prep race. I’ll use Talamo in the next. Instead I will use the #3 Imwiththeblond who finished third off a layoff and posted a fast workout last week.)

Race 10 has been run 20 times with almost equal winners each priced under 5-1, 5-1 to 10-1 and 10-1 or greater. Favorites win 15% of the time which means we shop for prices here. In this race we have Talamo riding and we also get a great price with the #3 Small Town Cop. 3rd in his debut on dirt he almost won first time on turf last out and keep in mind when Talamo gets on a win streak its usually on turf. Two nice workouts as well in the last 2 weeks adds to the appeal here. Mike Smith rides the second entry from Sadler in here, the #6 Neptune’s Spear a back east invader. I usually like to see one first but he won last month and posted a sharp workout last week. I like the favorite in this race, #2 I’ll Wrap It Up but he is winless on turf.

We end the Pk 4 today with another tough race that also has a high outside win percentage. From 22 races 59% of the winners are 5-1 or more. The favorite drops way down in class, the #14 Say’s Who. She was dull in her first race off a 10 month layoff. The big drop and the 2nd off the bench angle may be enough.  #3 Rock N Bunny meets the win criteria for this race at 8-1. She had a case of seconditus before finishing 5th last out. Could a good workout last week mean today is the day? There are a couple of others I could use in here like #4 Wild Caroline but she’s been off since November. When this is the case I look for jockeys I like and who they chose to ride. Yes Baze is on #4 BUT he has ridden her previous races. #9 SpoiledAndEntitled, however jumps out with my main guy Desormeaux riding. Desormeaux actually rode this filly at Del Mar in the summer for her only win at 6 1/2 furlongs. Today she cuts back to 6 and has been popular at the claiming box this year.

My first ticket will cost $40.50

3/9/12

2/3/7

2/3/6

4/9/14

For today’s Best Bet I am going with the early double 1/4 with 2/6. The favorites in each race with a price. For the Preakness I am going to go with Firing Line who didn’t switch leads in the last race and was leading American Pharoah at today’s distance. Also, yesterday the outside posts dominated at Pimlico. Superfecta box with Dortmund, Pharoah and Mr.Z as well!