Well after yesterday I guess we should be happy about our string of 3 out of 4 days. Yesterday was the first time I ever got skunked in the Pick 4, not even sniffing a win in the sequence. As they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Let’s see what winners we can uncover today in what looks to be a very tough sequence with two hillside races and no single candidates! A win today before tomorrow’s $750k Guaranteed Pick 4 would rock.
Today’s first leg starts off on the hillside course in a wide open affair where being the favorite is not an advantage with only a 12% win rate from 25 races. That’s 3 favorite wins from 25 starts for you math wiz’s. #6 Royal F J won at this distance in his last but moves up in class today, something I usually don’t like to see. Always in the hunt F J ran 3rd at this class level before the drop to the win last out. His trainer is 31% off the reclaim, a positive sign. #9 Monsieur Power drops today for winless Paddy Gallagher and at 8-1 if he fires meets our price criteria for this race. Bejarano rides #1 Gab Power (which my lovely wife sure has the gift of!) a late closer who needs a fast pace to run at. First time trying the hill and Bejarano rides and we get 6-1, a must use! The favorite here is #8 Eddie’s First, the record holder for this course but you would think Bejarano would have been giving first dibs here? He was recently gelded too so maybe? Tough, tough race, too bad there are no clear singles in the next legs to hit ALL here.
In race #6 Baffert brings us Roundupthelute who has done nothing to speak up. Baffert, however is 40% 1st time claiming and the horse has put in some nice workouts recently. Are those works a show to dump the horse who is dropping or do they mean she is ready for business? #4 Molten Image is the favorite after s second place finish second off a long layoff. You also need to look at #7 Moonlight Meeting with Desormeaux who rode this horse to victory in their last. The negative is the rise in class for me.
Back to the hill we go in race 7! 48% of the time the winners here is priced 5-1 or more with 20% of those 10-1 or higher. There is a first time Euro import #7 Meeting Waters and we get a 6-1 price with Bejarano riding! First time lasix, dropping, top jockey and a nice price makes her a must use. #8 Baruta flew early in her last race on the hill and faded badly. She picks up Prat today and if he can ration that speed watch out. This time last year she rattled off 3 straight seconds on the hill. I don’t like the favorite here #6 Famous Alice. I’ve lost enough money on her and she is coming off a 5 month break. I am going to use #5 Meinertzhageni who is dropping today and who posted a fast workout on March 28.
In the final leg we move to a mile on the dirt and this meet so far has been dominated by front runners. This race has been won by the favorite 55% of the time, a very high stat from 22 races. The morning line favorite is #9 Burning so we must use. Miller and Espinoza and their 21% win rate team up. #1 Blame It On Tekela drops in class and shortens to a mile after two straight second place finishes. For the speed in this race we have #10 Jacob’s Blubyrd who tired in his debut. Stretching to a mile he could go gate to wire.
Good luck today!
Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $36
A cheap ticket for my dad today costs $6
A bet I may do if I can scrape up some wins in earlier races costs $10