Santa Anita 04-02-2015

04-02-2015

 

3 out of 4 again! Anyways! It was one of the lowest Pick 4 pays we have seen this year at $50 but still. A great weekend of racing starts today leading to a $750k Guaranteed Pick 4 on Saturday! For the first half of the meet the Hillside course was the first race but it now looks as though it is now the anchor leg each day, just to add to the drama and excitement! Today I am going back to my 3 in every race strategy.

 

 

The first leg is a 1 mile affair that is typically won by the front runner. Talamo hops on #5 Two Is to Many, a front runner who is 2 for 3 on dirt here and races protected in this race today, signaling optimism. The possible favorite in this race is #4 Old Man Lake BUT he is moving up in class from the $8k level after a win. I usually don’t like to bet these. This trainer is a 30% winner on claim repeats however. The form shows the trainer for #7 Limited Response is 100% dropping off a win. Not sure what the sample size is but its a stat that sticks out for sure! Red hot Bejarano jumps on #8 Valley Cat and he is 2 for 4 on Jerry’s horses in the last two weeks. Cat is also dropping today.

 

 

The second leg today is won by the favorite 29% of the time and the winner is under 5-1 50% of the time. That means however that this is a race where bombs come, 29% win 5-1 to 10-1 and 21% win at a price greater than 10-1. #2 Little Curlin with Bejarano is a horse I’ve bet many times and only been rewarded with a win once! The Desormeaux brothers bring us #5 Crucero. Kent won on Crucero the last time he rode and the horse put in a sharp workout this week. 6-1 morning line meets our race price criteria too! I am tempted to use #3 Wanstead Gardens but I have been disappointed by him since he won at Del Mar. He has a case of thirds. A price horse that jumps out is #7 Which Market who has finished third of better 11 of 25 and drops for this race. He is also a late runner, not a bad trait for this extended distance. Both Desormeaux and Bejarano have ridden this year indicating some potential.

 

 

Leg 3 race #7 is won by the favorite 40% of the time from a small sample. This 1 mile distance is won by front runners and #3 Visitation lands Bejarano. Trainer Paddy Gallagher has been blanked at Santa Anita thus far, a stat that will change, perhaps today! He’s dropping as well today. #6 Two Six Wins is another front runner who is dropping today. #9 Empowering Force drops today but he is another front runner. He was claimed in his last race but the claim was voided and now he drops. Not sure what to make of that. There is a lot of speed in this race which could mean a late runner may buck the odds here. That horse could be #8 Afleet in Time with Desormeaux who came on late in his last to miss by 1 1/2 lengths.

 

 

To end this fun racing day we get the always entertaining downhill course! Spin the wheel, which horse will land in the winners circle! Horses 5-1 to 10-1 win 23% of the time, the same stat for horses over 10-1. #2 Bellamy Concerto with Stevens on board has finished second in his last two on the hill. The favorite in this race will be #3 War Destiny who everyone has been waiting to see on turf. A fast workout on March 28 may mean he is ready for business. A price horse potential in here is #4 Hauler has done squat in 5 starts but during that time did attract top jockeys. His trainer has 3 wins at Santa Anita from 16 starts, 2 of those coming 2nd off a layoff like today. Jockey Gonzalez has been heating up on price horses lately too.

 

 

 

Good luck today!

 

Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $40.50

5,7,8

2,5,7

3,6,8

2,3,4

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