03-13-2016

So close yet so far yesterday as we nailed the 16-1 winner in the Big Cap only to get beaten on the line in the nightcap. We definitely got our monies worth yesterday but the 3 of 4 almost making the big payout is getting old! My Pick 5 for today will be posted on my website.

Here’s what I wrote about the winner Melatonin yesterday – “In the Big Cap in race 10 the obvious 1st and 2nd choices are #5 Effinex and #8 Imperative. The big price horse here that looks like a great gamble at 20-1 morning line is #2 Melatonin. I actually think some money will come in on him and we will end up around 10-1 or less. This is a handicapped race so the favorite is carrying a top weight of 123 pounds while Talamo gets to ride Melatonin at 114. He jumping big time in class off a dominating win last out. Melatonin is the kind of horse in a Pick 4 sequence that if the stars align a huge payday awaits!”

Today’s Pick 4 begins in race 6 and we have some interesting options including a potentially nice bomb candidate. That candidate is #4 Kill Shot. Trainer Diodora is winning at a 24% rate at the meet and this horse has 2 wins 2 seconds at this distance. There are some breaks in the workout tab but if you note Kill Shot came out and worked nicely afterwards. He drops today and unlike past times when you watched a race off a break with the way the horse business is now you want to race these horses and win when you can. A good price to use one of our bullets in the race at 15-1 plus his best races have been on dirt like today.  #2 Oligarch is the 9/5 favorite today but has not been the same horse since claimed away from Miller back in November off 2 straight wins. The Dorf tried longer on turf last out and he weakened in the stretch. Prat rides #2 My Secret Affair and you cannot overlook anything Prat rides these days. Dropping off a 4th last out off a 3 month break he broke slow. Cerin races #8 Doors Open 3rd off the layoff with as 20% win stat in that category.  Santiago is 3 of 9 with Cerin. Good post position today to sit back and see how the pace develops.

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference.

3,2,4,8

6,4,3

11,7,1

7,8,10

Pick 5 will cost $12

1,3

4,6

1

4,9

3,4,2

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”