Santa Anita 03-08-2015

03-08-2015

 

Well we correctly predicted a price horse would yet again win the 1st leg of the Pick 4 off the race’s 20% win stat but despite having 5 horses in the race, including a couple of bombs, we failed to connect. It was just as well because if we had connected the 2nd leg would have broken our hearts with our top choice sprinting from far back in Del Mar in the stretch to miss. In the final leg Shared Belief proved yet again that he should have been Horse of the Year with an impressive win.

 

 

Like yesterday this race has a 19% win rate for horses priced 10-1 or more and 44% for horses greater than 5-1! This first leg today also brings us several horses who have not raced in many months as well as a couple of first time starters just to make things more interesting. To chose I am going to go off jockey choices and workouts. #5 London Legacy picks up Bejarano and is also dropping in class from his last start in the summer putting him top of my list. My price horse here is going to be the #2 Yahootee who has been firing off bullet works leading up to his comeback. #1 Stormin Trick has speed which he needs being stuck on the post today. If he guns from the gate he could take them all the way. If you want to throw in a first time starter the #7 Particleacelerator has several fast workouts leading up to this race. #4 Rocko’s Wheel is another you can consider and he did post a fast workout last week but he lacks speed.

 

 

#2 Silver Torch from the Hess/Desormeaux team is a late runner who may finally get the win after so many recent third and second place finishes. There is speed in this race to give him a perfect trip. Also brother Desormeaux enters #6 Crucero who Kent rode to victory in the last race yet his chose to stick with Silver Torch. This race has been won by the favorite only 3 of 23 times! 74% of the time a horse prices 5-1 or more gallops to victory. #5 Baby Blake has 11 seconds from 23 starts and gives us a nice 8-1 morning line price and has the best speed figure in here.  Picture time? My last choice in this leg is the #9 Broadcaster at 15-1. We won big with him Dec 21 in the Pick 5 and since that race he has been a much better horse. In his last race at 1 mile and 1/16 he led almost gate to wire only to be caught in the final 20 feet. He shortens to a mile today. In that last race at the 1 mile pole he was 2 lengths clear.

 

 

In race 8 #3 Global Hottie is 4 for 6 and won easy in her last race Jan 18. She also worked a bullet last week. I cannot argue against singling here but it always seems in stakes races like this there is some weird result so I will use three here too. #4 Meinertzhageni was claimed for $40k after a stellar win in her last and is aggressively jumped up in class. I usually don’t like risers but this horse may be this good. I am also going to use #1 Harlington Rose. I just like this horse and a 1st here in the Kalookan Queen and two close thirds she could snag the win today.

 

 

In the final leg #7 Big Hat Charlie drops in class and switches to turf for a trainer winning 33% overall and 22% 1st time turf. A sharp workout this week, a red hot trainer who has won 3 of 5 recently I will for sure use. My price horse in here is the #1 Paythebank with Talamo riding. The rail is winning 24% right now and Kruljac is winning 26% dropping from Maiden to Maiden Claiming. A blistering workout a week ago suggests he is very ready. The morning line favorite is #5 Go Trumpy Go who is also dropping for Miller and likes to close off the pace which could be useful today.

 

 

Good luck to us today!

 

Today’s Pick 4 bet will cost $40.50

1,2,5

2,5,9

1,3,4

1,5,7

 

 

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