02-06-2016
We started off with a 10-1 price in the first leg yesterday but that was it. Songbird races today but in race 5 unfortunately so no freespot in the Pick 4. I have a good feeling about today’s Pick 4 sequence and my ticket is on the small side.
This is a tough start to the sequence today with the lowest price 4-1, the #4 Opsec with Bejarano riding for Baffert. 1st start since March 2015 the works are not typical Baffert. Also, Baffert is offering this guy up for the $40k claiming price, the only one in this race. #6 Kenjistorm was 2nd two weeks ago and I hate short turnaround horses in Socal. The horse I really like in here is #2 Lovenseek for Hollendorfer who may be starting to finally heat up. Claimed from O’Neill off a 6th last out Jerry has since put in 3 sharp workouts including a best of 115 on Jan 30. Prior to that last race he rattled off three straight wins going this distance on turf. My gut says this is a great single at a very good price. If you want extra coverage in here the other horse than stands out is #10 Rock Shandy. He ran 4th off a none month layoff last month. He was racing in G3’s this time last year running second and third. His sole win was a mile on turf which is gets today. The post sucks so he will have to gun it from the gate but his sole win on turf he led gate to wire too.
Race 7 brings us a G2 on dirt. The favorite is #7 Imperative, a horse who has run second over the last two and gets Smith. Baffert races two in here but I am going to go with #1 with Bejarano riding, Cat Burglar. He won Jan 8 off a long layoff. #3 Cyrus Alexander ran second behind Cat Burglar last out after winning prior. The other Baffert in here #5 Hoppertunity is a horse than just does not want to win. Prat rides but I just cannot use.
Given I am using Cat Burglar and Cyrus in the previous race how do I not use #2 Class Leader in race 8 after ran third behind both those horses last out and gives us a 10-1 price and a sharp workout last week? I am absolutely using #8 Hay Dude off his win last out. D’Amato races two in here but Lopez and D are winning 38%. I really like this horse but the distance is the major question. #7 Flamboyant won last out at 1 1/8f for Paddy. This horse can close from off the pace or hang with the leading group so there are options for Blanc.
We end today with a maiden special weight! Hollendorfer debuts the favorite here, #12 Seventh Sense. Prat rides #5 Mucho Chrome who started slow in his debut, not uncommon. That race was at 5 1/2f and he closed nicely so the distance should be good. #1 Storm the Shore ran 3rd in his debut and put in a nice workout this week. A tough way to end the sequence you can play more heavily here if you want but I think I am good with who I have chosen!
ShowVivor Pick – can only be Songbird in race 5!
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference.
2,10
7,1,3
2,8,7
12,5,1
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”