02-05-2016
#2 Ike Walker had rattled off three straight wins under Espinoza on dirt before faltering in a G2 turf race last out under a different jockey. Espinoza hops back on, we see a sharp workout and we get a great price. #7 Just Kidding looks strong in this race with Bejarano riding. Last race he came 4 wide in the stretch to run second. He’s the morning line favorite in a race that is only won by the fav 25% and 55% of the time the winners is 5-1 or more. #6 Melatonin is interesting in here with Talamo riding on the stretchout off a 3 month break. This horse has closed great going 6 -6 1/2f so the added distance could worth in his favor here.
#7 Players Charm adds a little distance today and jumps slightly in class but if the last race was any indication both should not matter! He dueled three wide into the stretch and finished ahead by 4+. #3 Comes the Dream is the favorite in a race won by the favorite 43%. and plummets in class so I will use. Gonzalez and red hot trainer Cerin hook up on #2 Northern Iowa. This combo is 2/4 and Cerin is winning 38% at the meet thus far.
#8 Mokat is the 2-1 favorite in race 8 with Smith riding for Baltas. For that reason alone its hard for me to single (nightmares from so many singles that ran second) so I will also throw in #6 She’s On the Line who won last out going gate to wire on dirt. She ran 10th on turf prior to that but did run second at Del Mar on the turf in the summer when speed was rewarded. Early speed is dominating the turf races this meet thus far and at 15-1 I am using.
In the last leg today the favorite is #4 Day of Fury with Bejarano riding BUT he is coming in off a 7th in a Jan 16 race after winning 14 days prior. Jacobson is shipping from the East coast with a 24% shipper race for a $10k claimer? Bejarano is riding but is this to get more rides -big negatives here and this shell game we are seeing means we have to burn a bet on him! Also Jacobson couldn’t be any colder with 1 win from 17. ANY other jockey than Bejarano and I would not be using. I may change my mind before the pick 4 sequence begins too. #5 Formally Wild will try the gate to wire move that has worked recently for him and at 6-1 I will use. #9 Cant Do the Danse drops off a win slightly higher for Bonde (2 of 5 on this move). #10 Broadway Nika has been away since October when Spawr claimed. Frequent works since Thanksgiving for a trainer winning 32% now and 27% first of the claim 9/2 is worth the shot here. He will have to gun from the gate with the outside post.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.
2,7,6
7,3,2
8,6
5,4,9,10
Showvivor Pick – Race 2 Papaslilprincess
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”