We’ve been so close recently with many 3 out of 4’s or having our “sure thing” horse get beat or doing all in the downhill to get the favorite to win, that today I am going back to what has made me all my money in the Pick 4’s, my three in each race strategy!
The first leg in race #6 begins on the downhill course. #2 Loan Savant is dropping in class, adds blinkers and posted a sharp workout this week. Not my favorite jockey on board however but I will use. #6 Doctor Glynis is the probable favorite with red hot Bejarano on board. Doctor ran second here last month. The other possible favorite today is #10 Jade With Envy who has three seconds on this course and is dropping in class. The all button has resulted in the favorite winning on the hillside lately so I’m going to just go with three horses here today.
In the 6th race Bejarano and Hollendorfer hook up on the likely favorite #8 Run Like A Million. Run easily won in his debut race and saw a lot of betting action indicating good stable chatter. #3 Wildcat Sailor with Mike Smith on board has two firsts and a second from four races. My third choice in here is the #10 Guy Code who has two firsts and a second in his last three races. If you are looking for a possible price play the #4 is a front runner with a trainer who is 18% 2nd off the claim. Another one to look at too is the #9 Richard’s Boy, back from a 4 month layoff after winning in his debut. A fast workout a week ago could mean he is ready.
Race #7 brings us another 1st time Irish starter the #2 Big Johnny D who has a good winning record overseas with 5 wins and 4 thirds in 18 starts. We also get a price. It seems though as most of his wins have come at the mile and under distance. 1st time Lasix though usually gives these Euro horses a boast. I’m using because if I don’t use a 1st time Irish in a race he wins! #5 Talco is dropping today after losing by less then two lengths versus tougher in his last. #10 Joes Blazing Aaron has not raced since October at Belmont and I usually prefer to land on California runners in races like this but Stevens hops on, Mullins is 20% on 1st time starts and he has the fastest speed figure in here. If he gets off the AE a possible play for sure. If Joe does not get in then I will use #7 Helm with Bejarano on.
In the final race we have #2 Thermodynamics with Stevens on board. He does not race a lot but when he does you look a little closer. Bet to favorite in his two starts he was second in his first and 6th on a wet track last month. They try blinkers today and add another half furlong. A fast workout was also reported a week ago. #4 Alwazabridesmade has Hollendorfer and Nakatani who are winning at a 28% clip. Hollendorfer is also winning 27% with first time starters. The morning line favorite is #9 Medicine Butte who race second in her debut in September. She also posted a very fast workout last week.
Going back to basics this bet will cost $40.50.
2-5-10 (7 if 10 does not get in)
Good luck today!