01-28-2016
I will be heading to the NHC in Vegas this weekend and will be back to doing the Pick 4 analysis next week!
In the first leg #6 A Colt Following is the favorite off a dominating win at the $25k Jan 2. This jockey/trainer is 2 of 4 and this horse is 4 of 7 at Santa Anita. Hard to argue singling here. #8 Fancy Shoes will try to take them gate to wire, a tactic that has found success so far this meet. I’m going to make a stand with these two.
In leg 2 Tyler Baze who is 3 for 3 for trainer Yakteen rides #1 Pray Hard. A best of 73 workout on Jan 24 he is jumping in class today. This horse has 5 wins 4 seconds from 12 starts at this distance. The favorite in here is #6 Basmati who ran third two weeks ago and you know how I hate the short turnarounds. Trainer Baltas also races #5 Brother Soldier off a 9 month break with some serious bullet works over the last month. I am going to use Brother and not Basmati.
At 5-1 #3 Tiz a Classy Lass looks interesting. 4th last out against some others in here she won both starts at Del Mar in November. With #2 Socialized likely to try and wire the field Lass will have pace to close into today althought the rails are at 20 feet. I am also going to use #5 Autumn Flower coming in off a 2 month break. She won this distance in November at Del Mar. If #11 Can Can Babe gets in off the AE list then she is a consideration as well looking for her third straight win.
In the last leg the favorite #2 Miss Bliss is dropping and shortening up after a second last month. Bejarano rides #11 Sweeter Thancandy from the outside. She tried to wire them here three weeks ago and got bobbed on the line. The favorite wins this race 40% of the time and 77% of the time said winner is under 5-1 so no price shopping here.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $16 with horses listed in preference.
6,8
1,5
3,2,5,11
3,11
Showvivor Pick – Well we have a new streak going with another win on Sunday. Today I am landing on #5 William Crotty in race 1 with Bejarano riding, a major upgrade. He surged from 9 to as close as second going 7f last out. Better placement by Bejarano and a shortening in distance should be all she wrote.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”