01-24-2016

Hats off to the syndicate that won that $1m Pick 6 yesterday with a 60-1 shot. I thought for sure it would carry over! Today’s Pick 4 looks very doable. My Pick 4 bet today may be a head scratcher for some as I am going heavy in the first leg where many will be singling. Instead I am choosing my single in a later leg.

Ok I will admit it that I am not a Baffert fan. I find many of his horses get over bet and end up flopping. Today he has a free spot on the Pick 4 sequence for many with # 4 Hoffenheim who has a second and two thirds from three starts. He got bobbed on the line going 1/16th longer last time so the slight cutback “should” be ideal. To make things even worse Baffert sends out THREE in this race. Brad Free of DFR did an interesting piece on races where Baffert races 3 horses in December and from 71 races then there were 25 winners, 17 of them the favorite. Hoffenheim seems to only run in races with other Baffert runners recently and he misses each time. Today marks the third time. You either bet them all or bet none. I have a cheap ticket today so I will include him. A horse over 10-1 has won this race 35% of the time. #5 Bistraya finished ahead of Hoff at Del Mar but this is his first race at a route. He will be in the front early which is the best place at SA this meet. As you all know I like seeing fast works and #2 Eric the Trojan has rattled off three in a row. For my last choice I am landing on #6 Liam the Charmer with Prat riding. A firster for a trainer who is 1 for 1 on firsters this meet and a sharp workout in tow.

We hit the Hillside for leg 2 and with a 7/2 favorite in #1 Rocket Heat this is a wide open race. Rocket ran 3rd on “Da Hill” last out in a G3 opening day, fading in the stretch.  His ideal distance is 5f but I will use. #2 Holy Lute has 4 seconds from 6 starts on the Hillside and died opening day on the Hill but he put in a best of 34 work on Jan 11. Keep in mind this race has been won by the favorite 3 times from 22 starts and horses over 5-1 win 55%! #3 Cape Wolf is a firster from Ireland who raced tracks I frequented with my Dad when I was a wee lad. Nostalgia plus this horse rattled off three wins in a row before coming here and 1st time Lasix and a great price with Prat riding.

The favorite in race 8 is Star of  Munster, #7. 6f seems the ideal distance and the outside post is ideal for her speed. I am not going to over-think so single here.

The last leg sends us to “da Hillside” again with a 5/2 favorite in #10 Intoxicating Move.  She got squeeze at the start on the Hill New Year’s day and surged down the stretch to finish 4th losing by 1 1/2 lengths. The rails are at 30 feet today, however, and that favors the front runners and right to the inside is #9 Odisseia who cuts back from mile plus races. Her last five races she was in first or second at today’s distance and looks a pretty strong lock.

I am going very light on my ticket today so feel free to add extra coverage to bump it up.

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $12 with horses listed in preference.

5,4,6,2 (adding the other Baffert’s to the ticket increases it only $6 with 1,10)

2,1,3

7

9,10

Showvivor Pick – A bad start for our selection yesterday cost us the win but another second place is not a bad thing! Today I am going with Moyo Honey in race 5. Dropping from a G1 last month she will try to wire them today on the stretchout.

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”