We went 3 of 4 in the Pick 4 on Friday running second again in the 1st leg. My longshots in race 7 however ran 1st and second for a big exacta and trifecta payoff. Seeing these longshots come in is a hopeful sign for today’s great card!
It’s Pacific Class Day today with $1 million up for grabs. There is a mandatory payout for the Pick 6. Even with e large guarantees today if this chalks out like it could the pays will be on the low end so while I am looking for chaos in the Classic I am going with the top 2 choices in the other legs. Today I have included a detailed breakdown of the Pacific Classic and my preferred wagers. There is also a two track special Pick 4 today – the All Stakes Pick 4 with two stakes from Del Mar and two from Saratoga. I have my selections for that as well below. If you are at the Classic today give me a shout out!
Mile 1/4 Pacific Classic
1: Royal Albert Hall, 30-1 tries dirt for the 1st time, did put in a bullet work on Monday but was well beaten in a claimer last out. Has only 2 wins from 27 starts and Bejarano jumps ship too even though he has no other ride in the race
2: Collected, 5/2 and the “other” Baffet has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 6 under Garcia who is 27% for Baffert. This is my pick to upset Arrogate today. Has early speed. The last time he raced this distance at Pimlico in a G1 he ran 10th in May 2016 and then hit the bench for a year. Has not raced since June but has proven over and over can win 1st off the bench. Garcia has a habit to gun horses or as they say ride aggressively and many times that results in them fading in the stretch but today that may very well be the way to beat Arrogate if he throws the towel in again on a track he seems to not like.
3: Accelerate, 3-1 and upset Arrogate last out with a dominating gate to wire race, works have been so-so and Sadler is only 15% winner last race. Espinoza is 2 of 6 for trainer and knows how to win big races. Has not raced this far before but her closing style in the stretch tells me it should be no issue. He was let lose on the lead and I doubt that will happen today. 3-1 is also a horrible price today and if we are going to beat Arrogate other than with Collected we want a price.
4: Sorry Erik, 30-1 Desormeaux brothers horse and they have been icecold together lately going 9%, moving up in class looks overmatched on paper
5: Hard Aces, 20-1 may actually find this distance a tad too short but if they gun from the gate is a longshot possibility to steal it as the other “sadler”. We have a sharp work and this is a definite exotics horse who is always around at the wire. Ran gate to wire here in the G3 Cougar and got beat by a nose by Curlin Road going 1 1/2 miles so the strategy today will be gun it and this post is ideal. From 42 races has been in the money 25 including 8 wins
6: Donworth, 15-1, O’Neill/Gutierrex/Reddam are a potent combo winning 29%, has raced once at this distance and ran 7th, O’Neill is only 9% in graded stakes races, looking elsewhere
7: Curlin Road, 20-1 has won 2 in a row including a G3 last out going longer here under Prat, the other O’Neill who is 9% graded stakes. This horse is a paycheck collector for the owners and seems overmatched here but Prat is riding and this closer could be right around at the wire and if I like Hard Aces a lot how can I not bet on the horse who beat him by a nose last out?
8: Arrogate, 1-1 did the Dubai bounce last out but has trained great since that race and is unbeaten at this distance. If he does not win today he likely heads to the stud farm. There is not much more to say about this winner. It is his race to lose today. He needs to dispel the thinking that he does not like this track and while having won here last summer it was not an impressive race. Even money I am using because BUT I am also betting for carnage because if he wins the payouts will be tiny!
Trifecta/Exacta box 2,8,5,7
Superfecta box 2,8,5,3 and 2,8,5,7
Double 2,8,5,3,7 with 10
Pick 4 I need a single is in race 9 Edwards Going Left who after winning 2 in a row ran 3rd here last out getting blocked in the stretch. We get a sharp work for today
Longshots of the Day:
Race 3: Love My Bud, ran protected last out under same rider after a year on the bench, tries turf again and note his last turf race was 5 fl and he was closing and prior to that running on the Hill was leading and lost the whip in the stretch. No works at Del Mar but looks like a sneaky price horse for us today!
Race 4: Mt. Leinster, has run 2nd last 2 starts, 1st start since March when claimed, trainer is 27% 1st off the claim and 22% beaten fav and 13% layoff and 27% overall. In for $14k to get the extra 2 pounds weight break they want to get paid
Race 5: Icy Street, clipped heels at the start, got bunched up in the stretch and still managed to close to 5th and gallop after the finish. That was the 1st start since the debut in April and Baze jumps back on and in the April race going 7 fl he surged too to run second. 12-1 is a GREAT PRICE!
Race 7: Inordinate, off since a win in April in a G3 this race seems to have been the target, Bejarano jumps on, sharp work, 8-1 morning line price in a race won by horses 5-1 or more 40% of the time
Race 8: Hards Aces and Curling Road – see above!
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $30 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference
All Stakes Del Mar/Saratoga Pick 4 costs $22.50 or $45:
Saratoga Race 8: 6 (4,3)
Saratoga Race 9: 1,3,5
Del Mar Race 8: 2,8,5,7,3
Del Mar Race 9: 5,2
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”