11-29-2015

This is an extremely difficult Pick 4 sequence today, one that seems to require a lot of coverage making tickets too large.

Race 6, the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille mile on turf has a 14% favorite win rate and 62% of a large sample have been priced over 5-1 meaning this is a race to shop for value! Bejarano rides a Euro import again for O’Neill who have been winning with these, the #11 Imperious One. At 8-1 morning line he meets our price strategy for this race. Bejarano and O’Neill have been on absolute fire over the last two weeks. This race was targeted by his connections. Many horses in this race are making the jump from Maiden 52k to this G1 race so I am inclined to stick with ones with stakes experience.  #1 Manhattan Dan ships in after a 7th in the Breeders Cup and two thirds prior and won this summer on a firm course as this at Saratoga. He will try to wire the field. The favorite Dressed in Hermes picks up Smith but also carries 6 pounds more than everyone else. This is a very tough race.

I am only going two deep in the second leg today with the favorite Hoffenheim and first timer Triple Crown. Crown has rattled off some bullets this month for Miller who sends out #12 as well. Hoffenheim from Baffert legs up Espinoza after a third place finish last month. Baffert also sends out Arabian Leopard who has been an epic disappointment.

In the Matriarc Grade 1 the favorite Filimbi is a clear standout and has a record of 6-2-2 at this mile distance. When Mott sends them out here and Lezcano flies out to ride you pay attention. I am also hunting for a price in this race using Prize Exhibit who has won 3 of 5 at a mile and local racer Queen of The Sand who’s mile record is 3-4-1 from 8 starts. Paddy and Blanc are hitting at 33%.

The last race of the day the Zayat Stables send out a Baffert/Garcia horse Mighty Moses with two seconds on dirt from three starts. Smith rides Miners Light who ran second in his debut. O’Neill and Bejarano team up on firster Rim Nick with some nice morning drills.

I will be back to doing full write-ups for the Santa Anita meet.

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference

11,10,1

5,1

9,4,12

11,6,3

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Happy Handicapping!