Del Mar 11-08-2015

11-08-2015

Looks like the bombs are back at Del Mar. We hit one of those bombs in the second leg but whiffed in the last when another huge price came home. Still, $1800 for a 17-1 and 21-1 shot in the Pick 4 seems rather small for the payoffs we have been seeing lately (but not saying I wouldn’t be cheering if we hit it!). The 17-1 winner did help make the day a positive one as I had it for a win/show, something I do on all my live long shorts these days. We have hit some Pick4’s at this meet and nailed a lot of 3 of 4 with prices so we are right there in the mix! Yesterday was a rare day where Bejarano had no winners so pay attention to his rides today.

 

The first leg brings us a maiden’s race with some hyped up money burning horses over the last few months. The favorite is an invader from back East, #3 Tusk with Smith riding, ugg. After yesterday I will use given his second and two third place finishes from three starts. He has not worked out over this course and that’s something I don’t like so I will be looking for other coverage in this race. Baffert sends out Arabian Leopard first time turf at 8-1. He raced 12 days ago at 5 1/2 and weakened and has no typical Baffert fast works. Baffert has upset before with this move before but I’ll pass. 2nd favorite #7 Osceola Pond ran second at this distance in a race that saw two next out winners and had a sharp workout last week. The Desormeaux brothers send out firster #5 Ninety One Assault who put in a sharp work on the 24th and this tandem is 3 of 4 at the meet and winning 29% over the last two months. 6-1 is a good price.

 

#4 Sir Samson not surprisingly weakened last out off a 5 month break but has put in five bullets in a row before and after and that screams live to me at an 8-1 price with Talamo riding. #8 Golden Atlantic won last out and Perez and Glatt are 3 of 6 over the last two months. Golden is another running lights out in the morning. Baffert sends out the morning line favorite #10 Power Jam who won his debut in February and then hit the shelf. The usual fast morning works for a Baffert I will use as well.

 

#3 Wonderful Lie ran second at this distance here in July last year on the synthetic, hit the bench till June of this year where she ran second at a mile. She tried the turf then in July here at a mile and bounced. She hit the shelf again for two months and won in September at 6 furlongs on dirt. That was a mouthful! The distance seems ideal for her but the numerous breaks a concern but she does run her best races off the shelf and gives us a price of 8-1 or more. The 2nd favorite today is #3 Our Pure Creation who has who thirds and a second under Perez, the thirds coming here at Del Mar. She posts two bullet workouts at Turf Paradise over the last two weeks. Baltas races two in here one with Bejarano riding whom I am not going to use and the other with Gutierrez riding, #4 Wild in the Saddle. She was second in a Grade 1 in September into the second turn before weakening so gets major class relief today and Gutierrez has ridden her to two of her three wins this year.

 

We end the sequence today with maidens on the turf going a mile. The favorite is #2 Archaeo going out for a local barn under the tutelage of O’Neill who ran second on the Hill three weeks ago on a late move so the added distance today is good. #3 Trust Your Gut has two thirds and will like this added distance too plus my wife is always telling me to trust my gut when I tell her how I changed my bets and chose wrong! Leading jockey Gonzalez rides #7 Tristan’s Trilogy who will try to take them gate to wire on the turf, something we noted has been happening a lot these days.

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 horses listed in preference

3,7,5

4,8,10

2,3,4

2,3,7

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Good Luck today!

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