Del Mar 11-07-2015

11-07-2015

We got a great run for our money yesterday going 3 of 4 again and were alive to the last leg with four horses. We ran second to a 16-1 choice. That’s how the cookie crumbles in horse racing!

 

D’Amato sends out the 2nd 7/2 favorite in this race #7 Spirit of Ten. The favorites are winning over 50% at Del Mar at this meet (versus what felt like 1% at the summer meet) on dirt and this race is on turf where bombs have been more likely. Spirit is looking for her 4th straight win. She has not raced since winning here in September. Bejarano rides the other D’Amato in this race #2 Havanna Belle who carries 7 pounds less than the Spirit. I am not using the favorite in this race #5 Glory who is moving up in class off a win on the Hillside last month. She raced this distance earlier this year in a Grade 1 and 3 and struggled at the distance. I expect a line in her form tomorrow to read “bobbled or off slow at the start” something I see as a common occurrence with this jockey lately. With my extra bullet I am going to hunt for a price instead. The problem though is Baze and Bejarano have ridden the other potential bombs last out and chose these two mounts above. #3 Intoxicating Move at 8-1 meets my price objective, won here at a mile in August but raced only 9 days ago, something that may be common on the east coast but not something I like to see out here. Instead I am going to go with #4 Sheysheisnot who bobbled at the start last out off a 5 week break. This horse was in her prime last year but has done little this year and has tried almost every distance but today’s. If she is in the top 3 horses into the first turn we have a bombers chance!

 

#5 All Run is the 5/2 fav in race 8 today and is seeking his 3rd straight win. He also put in a best of 62 workout this week. If you need a single in this sequence here ya go plus favorites are winning dirt races 58% of the time! #8 Melatonin looks interesting to me here at a good price of 6-1. Second last out in a Grade 3 his jockey lost the whip at the 1/8 pole going 5 wide.  That was on the Hillside course. She won here on dirt at the distance in August and has put in three straight sharp workouts in a row since the G3.

 

Race 8 brings us the Kathryn Crosby going a mile 1/16 on the turf. Bejarano rides the favorite #7 Chalk O Lattey who has done well for us recently but she is moving up in class today. She did put in a sharp workout last week. The posts are at 24 feet and that means early leaders have a great chance of gate to wire  and that will be Chalk but another in here that fits this profile is #5 Beat of The Drum. Moving up in class today with a sharp workout this week she got an easy lead last out and zoomed for the win. Will they let her do that again today or will our two choices kill each other and set it up for a closer? #12 Full Ransom has a win and a second from 2 races here in the summer. Today’s rider rode both races and had this horse at or near the lead. At 12-1 its worth a chance in our bet. We need a closer now despite the rails at 24-feet just in case our three speedsters kill each and fade and one at a price is #3 Sweet as a Rose. She won last out going a mile 1/8 and was third here in the summer (and lost the jockey in a race prior here at the start). A sharp workout last week adds to the appeal as does the 12-1 price. I am not going to use the horse touted by everyone #2 Three Hearts. The absolute class of the field this distance appears to be too short.

 

We get a maiden claiming on the dirt for the last leg with a tepid 7/2 favorite and the second favorite coming in at 9/2. Yikes! The favorite is #12 Unbridled Rocket who has raced second two straight and a third prior. Photo day today? He’s racing from the outside post so will have to gun from the gate. The second choice is #9 Blue Copper from the Hess/Desormeaux tandem. Hess has raced a few horses in the last week without Kent so him jumping on may mean this one could be ready. A sharp workout is on the books last week. #6 Midnight Rumble gets a 5 pound weight break today and drops and also put in a good workout this week. Let’s also add a firster in here, #3 Wings of the Wind with Perez in the reigns for trainer Kitchingham who is winning 22% for a positive ROI with rookies.

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $36 horses listed in preference

7,2,4

5,8

7,8,5,3

12,9,3

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

Good Luck today!

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