By Ciaran Thornton (on twitter @californiapick4 and at www.californiapick4.com)
We almost swept the Pick4 this weekend but ended up with 3 out of 4 on Sunday.
The first leg of today’s Pick4 looks to be a two horse race. The favorite with Bejarano riding is #4 Ponder Lea. She won on October 2nd and since then has put in two bullet works including a best of 43 work on the 15th and 5th of 50 last week. Baltas and Bejarano are winning 33%. #6 Hennythelovepenny has yet to win this year but has come in second two of her last three. The favorite wins this race 50% of the time so I will go with only two here today.
In race 6 Eurton and Gutierrez team up on #2 Cheekaboo. This tandem has been on fire. She raced last on the Hillside course and rallied for second place so the added distance today should help. An interesting price horse in here is #7 I’m a Drama Mama who has rallied for 3rd place in her last two. This is her second start off a layoff and 1st time turf. #4 Roo’s Valentine will try to take them gate to wire and on the turf lately this tactic has had some good success. In the money all three starts you get your monies worth when you use her.
Baltas sends out #8 Basmati the favorite in race 7. He is winning 31% beaten favorite in last. #4 I Buy Gold gives us a price horse in a race where price can come in a high percentage. He has run right behind the favorite each of the last two and won here at Del Mar under this rookie at a big price in the summer. Another interesting price horse in here is #7 True Ten shipping in for trainer Diodoro who wins 36% putting blinkers on from a large sample and who is winning 26% shipping. He is also 1 for 1 at this distance.
In the last race Stevens takes the mount for French on #4 Broken Halo. This horse was a firster for Proctor back East before being claimed and that Stevens lands here is very interesting to me and is his only ride today. She has not raced in 4 months since that debut. Proctor did let her go but if Stevens hops on there were maybe some words in his ear? Mike Smith has one ride today, the #5 Send Me a Sign who he has, I know its a surprise, ridden to two straight seconds on dirt. The last race she hopped at the start and lost all chance. Adding distance and moving to dirt maybe a win finally? #7 Autumn Flower has experience at today’s distance and has run 3rd in her last two. Trainer Hendricks wins 25% on layoffs.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $13.50 horses listed in preference
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Good Luck today!