10-30-2015
The first five favorites won yesterday at Del Mar including 2 odds on choices! Yikes! What a change from the summer meet. Of course the favorite at post time in race 5, the start of our Pick 4 sequence was 7/2 and we did not have him. Actually I whiffed yesterday, badly. Let’s see if we can bounce back today.
My Breeders Cup Pick 4 starting in race 6 today that costs $45 is:
1,8,10
2,3
4,8,10
7,4,6,12
The favorite in the first leg is from the Hess barn, #7 Blue Law ridden by Blanc. Second last out here in September his is a tepid favorite having not raced since them with average works. That last race though did produce a couple of next out winners. #6 Dylan Ward has a second and third in his last two with a sharp workout last week. Bejarano rides #5 Fishel who was second last out on turf going further and was up for second. Getting better in each start but I’m unsure. I don’t want to spend many bullets in this race.
Race 7 brings us a free spot on the Pick 4 sequence, the 7/5 favorite #2 Smokey Image who is looking for his 5th straight win. Favorites are finally winning here so this should be a “safe” single. He won his last race here and has yet to be challenged for a trainer 4 of 10 non graded stakes this year. In a race like this I usually look to find a price horse to beat the favorite but nothing here jumps out.
I think 9/5 is a bit short a price for #1 Bal a Bali who has been beaten twice after winning his first start in the US. Bejarano picks up for the injured Prat. 5-8 at the distance helps and he is the class. The favorite has only won this race 13% of the time too. There are a few horses in here who like to run longer and this race appears a prep which adds to the toughness. #6 Kulik Lodge is 2 for 4 at this distance for trainer Proctor. He looked good running longer last out and cuts back today and is dropping in class and at 6-1 a good price for a swing. #2 Little Jerry picks up bug boy for red hot Baltas and since his last race at Del Mar in August running 1 3/8 where he weakened he has put in 4 sharp workouts. Three of those workouts where the best or second best works of the day from large samples. Bug boy has won his only race for Baltas at a big price recently too. This horse is all speed and will be sent early but there is other speed in here. The number of sharp works though means for a great price he is a absolutely going into my Pick 4!
Bejarano rides the favorite in the last leg today #2 Fab Four Ever who finished 3rd in a 4 way sprint for the finish last out at 5 1/2. Bug Boy rides #8 Mothernaturespell who is dropping down big for Hess today. She hopped at the start last out and had to rush up. This race has been won by the favorite twice from 17 starts with 41% of those horses priced over 10-1 and 59% have been over 5-1. #6 Private Terrace is moving up in class off a win last month and did come in second at 6 1/2 here in August. This seems a good race to try ALL in and hope for carnage. If you want to keep the ticket small use only these three.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $49.50 horses listed in preference
7,6,5
2
1,2,6
ALL (using only 2,8,6 costs $13.50)
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Good Luck today!