Del Mar 09-05-2015

09-05-2015

I will be back to doing my detailed analysis for the Santa Anita later this month!

 

What a very nice day we had yesterday beginning in race #1 where my highlighted long-shot ridden by Prat came home at 9-1. It was a great start to the Pick 5 for us but we blanked in race 2 and ended up 4 of 5 on the day. In race 3 Enduring Erin came in at a very nice price as well. However, its all about the Pick 4 and yesterday it came home. It paid only $120 but with our low $27 bet it was a nice return. Let’s see if we can end this hard meet on a roll.

 

The fields today are huge meaning it is likely to be a chaos day with everyone trying to get into the Winners Circle before their beach vacation is over. Emphasis will be on droppers looking to pay for the summer break.

 

The first leg is another where after 21 races 43% or 10 races have been won by horses over 5-1. Hollendorfer sends out his own horse here, the #2 Frandontjudge who is seeking her third straight win. Baltas sends out two horses in here, the favorite #5 Tiz A Kiss and #7 Sayitright Kat. Both have turned in a sharp workouts in the last week. Kat at 15-1 moves up in class and races on turf and routes for the first time. This trainer/jockey is winning 29% with a very nice ROI. I will stick to these but #8 Spirit of Ten is another to consider.

 

 

In race #9 a Grade 1 Prat rides a 15-1 class riser for Hollendorfer , the #6 Stays in Vegas. He also enters #5 Surfside Tiara with Bejarano and the second favorite #11 Songbird with Smith. Prat and Jerry are winning 29% with a very nice positive ROI. I may be crazy not betting Smith on Songbird in a big race but I’m hoping for the usual chaos we see in these races.

 

 

In race 10 the favorite has won once from 11 starts for a 9% win rate and horses 5-1 or higher have won 72%! The favorite here is #4 Texas Ryano with red-hot Prat riding but this favorite is vulnerable.  #5 Atomic Rule is rising in class seeking a 4th straight win and this season win streaks here have been dying. Gary Stevens hops on #6 Surfcup who bobbled at the start last out off a two year break then rushed to the front and led into the turn before tiring. A sharp workout this week and Stevens with a 12-1 price in what I think is a wide open race I am for sure using. #9 Zuri Chop is dropping for Sadler today and the last race was the first since racing in France in April. It would not be crazy to have an ALL ticket in this race if you can zero in on singles elsewhere.

 

 

In the final leg today king jerry has the favorite #7 Formally Wild who was claimed from a $72k allowance race to run for $16k in today’s claiming race. Hollendorfer can do no wrong but this is a tough favorite to trust. #1 Eagle Rock is dropping off a claim by an owner/trainer who may want to get into the winners circle this last weekend and gives us 8-1. Bejaran rides #14 who surged late to get 2nd last out but drops today. Again droppers today to get the last weekend of Del Mar win is not off putting. Trainer Palam is 3 of 9 2nd off the claim with a nice ROI.

 

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 with horses listed in preference

2,7,5

3,6,5

6,9,4

1,7,14 (#5 on 14 scratch)

 

The Pick 5 has become almost impossible at Del Mar unless your bankroll is giant. We did have 4 of 5 yesterday but today’s looks even harder. I have my 4 selections in each race for exotics consideration as well.

 

If looking for potential singles in the Pick 5 then #3 in race #1 and #6 in race 5 look best. Race #5 is a battle of the half million dollar Scat Daddy Kids. The other is #7 Tristan’s Trilogy.

 

 

Races 1-7

3,4,2,13

7,2,6,8

10,7,1,8

10,3,11,12

6,3,7,4

1,5,12,11

6,5,2,3

 

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

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