What a heartbreaker that was yesterday. In race #10 my two 12-1 outsiders, who I highlighted in the write-up, came home 1st and 2nd and with three horses going into the last, including a horse being bet as a sure thing, we were looking good. But this is Del Mar and you know the rest. Unfortunately thanks to outages at both TVG and Xpressbet if you did not have your bets done by the sixth race you were out of luck snagging those huge prices in a bet like I was. Sigh! We continue to get very close to a fat payoff in the Pick 4 from our small bets. Yes, I could call 7 horses in a 8 horse field to claim the win like others but what you see here is what I bet!
We now know the real reason Baffert chose not to run American Pharaoh in the Classic even though he trains here – Beholder would have WHOPPED him. What an impressive run yesterday and the highest Beyer figure of any horse in 2015!
I will be back to doing my detailed analysis for the Santa Anita meet next month but here is a taste of that today!
The first leg today is not an easy one with 3-1 being the shortest price. #3 Lily Pod comes out for Baltas and Graham who have been clicking over the last 2 weeks with a big flat bet profit. In fact Baltas in this scenario today has positive ROI across the board including 33% beaten favorite plus a sharp work last week. I will also use #10 Finest City who was second in her debut after tiring and getting caught. A fast workout August 11 adds to the appeal. This is Del Mar so with the lowest odds in this race being 3-1 indicating anything is possible we need a price horse. #7 Everlovin Woman jumps out at 15-1. Trainer Herrick is 2 of 5 2nd off a layoff and 3 of 10 maiden special weight. His only win at the meet was also a big price with this same jockey. If you can find singles in other legs this is not a crazy race to hit the ALL button on.
In the big race today the Del Mar Mile #2 Talco has not raced in two months but has been training lights out so this race has likely been the target. A sharp workout August 6 for a horse who loves this distance this is not a bad single. We must remember though we are at Del Mar and races like this have been seeing quite a lot of upsets. Trainer O’Neill sends out two in this race, #1 Pure Tactics, a horse I really like to bet on but has failed to deliver many times with Smith on board, and #3 Jimmy Bouncer who is seeking his 4th straight win from 4 races. O’Neill trained Jimmy for his first two wins last year before Mora claimed and then O’Neill claimed right back. Reddam Racing also owns and they are top of the standings. We saw Reddam pull a similar tactic a couple of weeks ago with a big upset, I believe with the same trainer. 30-1 price how do we not use given what we have seen at Del Mar this season! Proctor sends out two horses but the one Stevens rides is the one you watch and that is #10 Avanzare. Off since January there are SIX straight sharp workouts in a row. Live at a decent 6-1 price. The favorite has won this race 47% of the time from 47 races BUT a 10-1 or more price has come home 19%.
In the 9th race D’Amato sends out the favorite #4 Gloryzapper who was heavily bet in her debut and won. Again I hate to harp but Del Mar is bomb central this year and #1 Can Can Babe really jumps out here at 12-1 Trainer Avila is winnings 33% when off more than 46 days. Babe has not raced since June at Golden Gate and shippers from there have been doing very well here. Avila claimed her June 7 and then she put in a bullet workout June 20th. Avila is 33% first time blinkers as well.
The last race is a wide open affair with the lowest priced horse coming from the Hess/Desormeaux tandem at 7/2 and then everyone else 6-1 or higher. Another possible ALL race but the ticket would be ridiculously expensive. That favorite is #3 With a Twist who ships in for bonus money. So what about the others in here? Well in situations like this when form stats don’t jump out I like to see what the leading jockeys do. Who did they ride before and who do they choose now. I was looking at #7 Toomanytomatoes who was ridden to a victory last out by Prat but Prat abandons on the class raise to ride #2 Tiz Partners. I will also use #4 An Unusual Group who was placed 1st last out at this distance here at Del Mar and who has been training here.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference
The Pick 5 has become almost impossible at Del mar unless your bankroll is giant. I have my selections for the 1st 6 races below but two of them appear a BUY ALL race – race 2 and race 5. With 2 ALL race candidates using the 2 selections I have as rolling doubles looks like a good idea.
Race #1 Double
5,3 with ALL
Race 2 Double
ALL with 5
Race #3 Double
5 with 7,1
Race #4 Double
7,1 with ALL
Races 1-5 selections
Race #6 I Like #2 Horizontaly Speaking who was claimed last out and is now trainer owned. 6 sharp workouts in a row could indicate live at a big price. #9 Chips All In and #7 Home School look good here too.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.