It figures the day I go to Del Mar the Pick 5 hits for $181k! My 7 year old son had a blast winning his first three races yesterday including a 32-1 bomb in race three. What a great way to get the horse racing bug instilled in him! I did say yesterday’s card was a HARD one. Bombs continue to roll in at the Del Mar meet but this has been a very, very difficult card to connect on this season. My plan is to continue to keep the tickets small and play more superfectas and rolling doubles, pick 3’s where logical singles appear. As a side note what a year French jockey Prat is having. He is riding for every barn he can and pulling out wins you would never think of. The makings of a new Southern California legend perhaps. It was great talking to Frank @scantonisureshot yesterday. He runs the daily Newcomers Seminar at Del Mar so if you are at the track stop by and say hi to him!
I am doing my usual in-dept analysis that I do for the Santa Anita meet for today’s racing.
I think we need to go deeper than I want to in the first leg today as there are some varied choices from favorites to outsiders. That means I have to take a stand in one or two other legs. #1 Alltheleavesrbrown upgrades to Talamo today after two seconds and a third from 3 starts and a 5-1 price. An out of state invader with consistent works at Del Mar the price is good and singling if you have budget constraints is not crazy. Prat rides #6 Architop who had a sharp workout last week and comes out for a trainer winning 30% as a beaten favorite. If #12 Blue Law gets in off the AE this Hess/Desormeaux is a must use. #7 Admiral Jaxon has Baze riding after being declared a non-runner last out jumping the gate. Mullins wins 28% first time grass with a big ROI and this horse was bet down last race indicating something positive may be afoot and at a big price too. #2 Big Discovery adds blinkers and gets Bejarano. The favorite here is #3 Nakamoto who loves to come in second or third. Tough race to start!
Prat rides #4 Princess Kendra who drops into a claimer and did well against similar twice before with two thirds. #8 Briana Jean has two seconds from her last two races and adds a half furlong today. The winner should be one of these two.
Prat again rides the favorite in leg 3, the #2 Indecise who is dropping from a G3 last out. Off since April but with regular workouts since including a sharp one last week, a single here is not crazy. One issue here is the favorite only wins 11% of the time in this race. #2 Istanford was edged for third last out during the Del Mar rainstorm on an off track but prior to that is unbeaten on turf here. I am not sold on the horse but it may be worth using especially with the low fav win % for this race.
The last leg per the betting will be a two horse race between #5 Mitlee ridden by Bejarano and #3 Jens de Ville. Miltee’s trainer has a huge flat bet profit 1st of the claim of $14 winning 27% too. Talamo rides #6 Out Of Mischief who is dropping big today for a trainer winning 27% on a move like this.
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $30 with horses listed in preference
1,6,12,7,2,3 (12 unlikely to get in but if does the bet is $36)
Pick 5 will cost $20 ($36 if AE’s get in)
2,7,9 (9 on AE unlikely to get in but use if does)
1,6,12,7,2,3 (12 on AE unlikely to get in but use if does)
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.