Lots of rain through today so the turf is going to be soft giving Euro horses a big advantage and the dirt is going to be fast!
Stats for the race are for the TRACK not for the BC races. Superfecta and Trifecta average pays are for the BC races
Friday
Race 5 Juvenile Turf Sprint 5fl – 1st time
7,1,8 (5)
Race 6 Juvenile Fillies Turf
Stats: Favorite wins 30%, under 5-1 is 70%, over 5-1 wins 30% with 5% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $2k and the superfecta $22k
6,3 (11)
Race 7 Juvenile Fillies
Stats: Favorite wins 38%, under 5-1 is 58%, over 5-1 wins 42% with 23% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $1.7k and the superfecta $16.7k
10,7,2,8
Race 8 Juvenile Turf
Stats: Favorite wins 55%, under 5-1 is 70%, over 5-1 wins 30% with 20% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $3k and the superfecta $24k
5,2,3,14
Race 9 Juvenile
Stats: Favorite wins 30%, under 5-1 is 68%, over 5-1 wins 31% with 5% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $1k and the superfecta $11k
9,6 (4)
Friday Longshots of the Day:
Race 5: Sergie Prokofie, the other O’Brian horse won last out and is 3 of 3 at the distance
Race 7: Sippican Harbor, is a deep closer in a race where everyone is going to be flying early and this is a race where horses over 10-1 win 23% of the time. Has one two in a row on fast dirt and we are likely to see that Friday at a nice price
Race 8: Line of Duty has won 2 in a row for a trainer who wins with prices at the BC. 29% 1st time Lasix and 29% in Graded races 10-1 is a great price
Today’s Race 6 Late Pick 4 will cost $32 depending on singles with horses listed in preference.
6,3 (11)
10,8,7,2
5,2,3,14
9,6 (4)
Today’s Race 5 Pick 5 will cost $64 with singles with horses listed in preference
7,1,8
6,3
10,8,7,2
5,2,3,4
9,6 (4)
Saturday
Race 3 Filly and Mare Sprint
Stats: Favorite wins 31%, under 5-1 is 69%, over 5-1 wins 30% with 15% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $4k and the superfecta $42k
13,11,5,1
Race 4 Turf Sprint
Stats: Favorite wins 31%, under 5-1 is 54%, over 5-1 wins 46% with 27% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $2k and the superfecta $23k
9,8,3,1
Race 5 Dirt Mile
Stats: Favorite wins 34%, under 5-1 is 58%, over 5-1 wins 42% with 20% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $2.4k and the superfecta $16k
10,9,3,1
Race 6 Filly and Mare Turf
Stats: Favorite wins 23%, under 5-1 is 55%, over 5-1 wins 45% with 10% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $1.5k and the superfecta $11k
6,3,1,5
Race 7 Sprint
Stats: Favorite wins 57%, under 5-1 is 89%, over 5-1 wins 11% with 7% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $1.5k and the superfecta $11k
5,9,7,2
Race 8 Mile
Stats: Favorite wins 33%, under 5-1 is 52%, over 5-1 wins 48% with 15% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $7.8k and the superfecta $34k
11,8,2 (10)
Race 9 Distaff
Stats: Favorite wins 16%, under 5-1 is 42%, over 5-1 wins 59% with 19% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $7.8k and the superfecta $34k
Race 10 Turf
Stats: Favorite wins 36%, under 5-1 is 79%, over 5-1 wins 21% with 0% of that over 10-1. Average trifecta pays $1k and the superfecta $15k
2 (6,12)
Saturday Longshots of the Day:
Race 3: Finley’s Luckycharm loves this course and is 6 of 7. We get a sharp work and the horses speed is as fast as the top choices in here except we get 10-1 or more
Race 4: Hembre has some serious speed and has won 2 in a row going longer. Is 1-1 at this distance and the trainer legs up his main jockey. 20-1 for a trainer winning 21% last race and the jockey/trainer are 4-1-1 from the last 12
Race 5: Giant Expectations ran 3rd in a prep race last out 1st off the bench after a slow start. Obvious prep – we get a best of the day work and look at those 3 big workouts in September we get a giant price. Looks very very sneaky in here. MUST USE
Race 8: One Master is 12-1 despite beating Polyderm last out and I will take that price for sure. 1st time routing but the distance looks fine
Race 9: Vale Dori is a Baffert horse with Talamo riding – I would really love to see Joe get a BS win, 12-1 price and this race looks wide open this year. She LOVES off tracks and is 3-3 on off courses and that is big for this race with the conditions
Today’s Race 7 Late Pick 4 will cost $8 depending on singles with horses listed in preference.
5 (9,7,2)
5,1,4,2
11,8,2,10
2 (6,12)
Today’s Race 3 Pick 5 will cost $64 with singles with horses listed in preference
13,11,5,1
9,8,3,1
10,9 (3,1)
6,3,1,5
5 (9,7,2)
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”