Another packed card today with 10 races and an early post time of 11:30am. We won the late Pick 4 yesterday for peanuts but it was a small ticket. Still it could have been much more if our 13-1 longshot in race 10 did not lose the photo finish. Closers were running in quicksand yesterday giving the front runners a big advantage like the Breeders Cup weekend. Hopefully that changes today. I found this card very, very hard to whittle down the selections with many races having multiple value horses with chances. The pays should be very good today. Racing returns New Year’s Day.
Pick 5 single is in race – none today
Pick 4 single is in race 7 Venetian Harbor. It is always a risk singling in the 1st leg of the sequence but this is a Pick 4 that could pay nice and I want to spread in other legs. Highest last race speed and trainer Baltas is 30% beaten favorite. We have some sharp works for the second career race with Rosario picking up the mount. The horse should have easily won that last race going 5fl and was well ahead on the gallop out.
Value Plays of the Day:
Race 3: Kelani Kim makes the first start since August for trainer Mark Glatt and he legs up Edwin Madonado. Glatt also adds blinkers so we know what the strategy is- go gate-to-wire. Edwin has won on a huge value horse already for Glatt. Regular works since that last race on turf and the horse is protected today. 15-1 is great value.
Race 4: Danceformunny moves back to turf for Baltas who is 20% on this move and 28% going from sprint-sprint-route. Rispoli hops on and we get a sharp work.
Race 5: Stay Golden is a mostly nite-time horse with only 1 lifetime victory and the horse hit the bench off the claim in July going a mile and running second. They protected the horse next out under the lights in an allowance race. Dropping in class today, 2nd start off the layoff this horse has a chance to win but most definitely should finish in the money at a great price.
Race 6: The Stiff is the “other” McCarthey horses (he saddles the favorite) but the trainer owns this horse and Cedillo is riding off a win last out on dirt, the horses first. Always a little late on the scene Cedillo may be the lightbuld for this horse and 20-1 os too great a value to ignore.
Race 8: Parkour picks up Prat off a win last out Dec 1 under Valazquez. Prat had choices in this race (rode 3 of them and two of them to win last out) and lands on this 10-1 horse for Mandella. Prat is 0 for 9 for this trainer but 78% in the money. Moving up in class this is a jockey play.
Race 9: Into Chocolate has one victory from 6 races but almost every race into the turn has looked like she would blow the other horses away but fades. The horse continues to be a victim of issues almost every race from stumbling and then rushing up to being 3 or 4 wide in short fields into the turn. We get a major jockey upgrade today to Abel Cedillo and trainer Clifford Sise decides the blinkers have been no help and removes them. The last two workouts, both sub one minute five furlong works are the fastest ever for this horse who also races protected today. We are getting great value at 6-1 today and likely higher as most punters will have by now thrown in the towel and given up betting on this horse. The works and jockey switch tell me now is the time to bet!
Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference
Race 1: 6,4,10 (2,7)
Race 2: 1,7
Race 3: 6,4,3
Race 4: 8,4,9 (1)
Race 5: 7,2 (3)
Today’s Race 7 Late Pick 4 will cost $40 with horses listed in preference
Race 7: 8
Race 8: 6,2,3,8,9
Race 9: 7,6,4,5
Race 10: 6,3,2,9
Selections for each race with horses listed in preference
Race 1: 6,4,10 (2,7)
Race 2: 1,7
Race 3: 6,4,3
Race 4: 8,4,9 (1)
Race 5: 7,2 (3)
Race 6: 9,3,6 (1,7)
Race 7: 8
Race 8: 6,2,3,8,9
Race 9: 7,6,4,5
Race 10: 6,3,2,9
Typos happen and I do my best not to make them. Always read through my writeups to make sure the posted numbers are correct. I list Pick 4, Pick 5 selections and also a listing of all plays for each race. If there are any differences, please let me know.
*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”