11-08-2020 Del Mar Full Card

All dirt races today and rain is in the forecast.  I will be the guest handicapper on Frank Scantoni’s Del Mar Sunday Seminar so make a note. Watch live on the Del Mar website, Facebook page, Twitter or YouTube channel.

https://www.dmtc.com/calendar/detail/bestbet

LA Times/Union Tribune Value Play:

Race 8: He’s The Reason Ships in for a small stable for Sandi Gann and again this trainer who is winning 27% on the year does not risk his horse. This is the 1s start since July and we have a series of very sharp workouts for a horse with blistering early speed. Shipping from Hastings in Canada and not risked with this kind of early speed. 15-1 is great value. This horse has been favored/top 3 choices in every career race.

Value Plays for Today:.

Race 1: Flat White -BLISTERING early speed here and won 1st start off a year layoff at GG on Oct 16th. This is a small stable for Rene Amescua and I LOVE these small stables here in so cal. This trainer is 26% taking the blinkers off. Wet fast track with a horse that won gate to wire last out I think we know what the plan is. I would have loved to see Edwin Maldonado get the ride but I think I know the trainers plan here – that extra weight break for a gate to wire move at this tricky distance.This horse has as much speed as the beatable favorite. WIDE open race u may have to hit all in your Pick 5 so this value play jumps off the page for me. 

Race 2: Miss Alegria has won 2 in a row under jockey Juan Hernandez once here and once at Santa Anita last month. Juan had to steady the horse last out and it still didn’t matter – this horse likes to run and likes to pass horses if you watch the race replays on Calracing. We are getting 6-1 because Baffert has a horse in this race. Horses 5-1 or more have won this race 43% going 8 of 19 = value race with 2 Bafferts horses. The Bafferts do tend to win these but when they dont we get great value! 

Race 3: Malibu Mistress Ships in from Emerald Downs for the ship and win bonus money AND is not risked for a claim. Cedillo is enticed to ride as well. Won last out at 5 half on wet fast what we will have today. 8-1 morning line I doubt we get that great a value play today. HORSE FOR THE TRACK CONDITIONS TODAY. 

Race 5: Mongolian Legend – Has the top last race speed and top back speed so I absolutely love the move Enebish Ganbat has made putting Edwin Maldonado on the horse.They drop the horse in class today but do not risk for a claim. There are also the best workouts of the summer in the last 2 weeks potentially telling me this horse is primed for today’s race. Edwin pops the gate and throws mud in the face of the other horses going gate to wire at 12-1. 8 of the 17 times this race has been run a horse over 5-1 has won. 

Race 6: Miss Millie – Mike Smith is enticed to ride this horse and he is very particular these days. Trainer Eric Kruljac is not known for races like this  with one win from 53 races 1st time start and 1 win from 46 in maiden special weight debuts. YIKES – why is Smith here? Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters including a stakes winner No workouts over the Del Mar track only at Los Al 

Race 7: Sheeza Girlie Girl Has won 3 of the last 4 including a late surge win on the turf course here. That was Oct 25th. Fast turnaround for a trainer who is 0 for 8 in stakes. The last fast turnaround for this horse was here in the summer when they tried the G3 Torrey Pines and the horse ran around the track. The closing speed and the way this horse loves to pass horses is why I have to use this price. The top choices in this race are ALLL early speed. This is the top closer. 

Race 8: He’s The Reason Ships in for a small stable for Sandi Gann and again this trainer who is winning 27% on the year does not risk his horse. This is the 1s start since July and we have a series of very sharp workouts for a horse with blistering early speed. Shipping from Hastings in Canada and not risked with this kind of early speed. 15-1 is great value. This horse has been favored/top 3 choices in every career race.

Today’s Race 1 50 cent Early Pick 5 will cost $81 with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 7,1,3 (4,5)*

Race 2: 4,1,2

Race 3: 7,3,5

Race 4: 6,1

Race 5:  8,4,5 (2)*

Today’s Race 5 50 cent Late Pick 4 will cost $60 with horses listed in preference

Race 5:  8,4,5,2

Race 6: 5,6 (1)*

Race 7: 8,1,3

Race 8: 4,1,3,9,2

Selections for each race with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 7,1,3 (4,5)*

Race 2: 4,1,2

Race 3: 7,3,5

Race 4: 6,1

Race 5:  8,4,5 (2)*

Race 6: 5,6 (1)*

Race 7: 8,1,3

Race 8: 4,1,3,9,2

Typos happen and I do my best not to make them. Always read through my writeups to make sure the posted numbers are correct. I list Pick 4, Pick 5 selections and also a listing of all plays for each race. If there are any differences, please let me know.

*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections. 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”

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