11-02-2019 Breeders Cup Saturday

I have put my thoughts down on each of my top choices in each race and have included racing stats and comments on each of the Breeders Cup races. My emphasis this weekend will be on value plays in my suggested bets. I have included my suggested bets for each Breeders Cup race as well as Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s. I will be looking at Trifecta’s and rolling doubles today for better pays using my value horses in top position keys. Trifectas tend to be the best bets on Breeders Cup Days. 

My top jockeys to watch this weekend will be Flavian Prat and Abel Cedillo. Their success will translate to big wins for us. 

RACE 1:

#5 Apache Princess just missed last out under Prat for Desormeaux  closing late for 2nd. Kent now rides for his brother at a nice 6-1 price and with so much early speed a closer is what we want and with few rides brother is helping brother today.

#8 Girls Know Best is 5 of 11 sat the distance but no works since a 4rd Oct 11

#7 Gypsy Blue is Cedillo and Glatt winning 27% and are 4 of the last 5

#4 Just Grazed Me – won at this distance last out

RACE 2:

#3 Roadster

#4 Flagsatff

#5 Comical Ghost is the “other” Baffert who has won both races under Talamo who is 31% for Baffert. Big jump in class today but this is a Godolphin horse on a big race day at 8-1

RACE 3: 36% winners are 5-1 or more

#3 Nolde

#7 Ocean Fury is  O’Neill/Bejarano who are 40%. Won last out and takes a big jump in class.

#8 Neptunes Storm

#2 Hackberry for exotics

Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Race 4: 33% winners are over 5-1. Favorites have lost the last 4 in a row. No one has ever gone gate to wire and 3 of the last 4 winners came from deep off the pace.

#1 Covfefe is 2 for 2 at the distance with the highest last race speed. Trainer Brad Cox is 26% shipping, 30% winner last race and we see a best of the day 5fl work in 59 seconds.Logical favorite

#8 Dawn the Destroyer is 12-1 in a race where everyone will go to the lead this horse likes to close. Ran 2nd at Keeneland last out so meets that criteria. 3rd start off the layoff she has a tendency to “just miss” but at this price is a must use.. Has the 3rd best late speed, back speed right behind the top choices. Came from far back last out to miss by a nose to Spiced Perfection who is 4-1. If 

#6 Bellafina  has not been the same since hitting the bench in April after winning 6 of 7. Off slow in the last two starts has not helped. Prat rides for Callaghan and they are 20%. Trainer is 36% when he goes route to sprint. Horse is 2 of 3 at the distance. A sharp work. 6-1 is an okay price but I’d like higher!

#9 Spiced Perfection  is 3-2 from 7 starts at the distance. Won last out at Keeneland for Miller, the 1st start since May. 7 of the last 10 winners of this race had their prep race at Keeneland. The last 2 winners prepped at Del Mar but we have no Del mar preps for this race this year.

#4 Come Dancing  is 2 for 4 at the distance and has won the last 2 with two seconds prior. 3rd off the layoff and the top speed at this distance

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 8,6

Exacta Box 8,6,1 

Trifecta 8,6,1 with 8,6,1,9  with 8,6,1,9,4

Breeders Cup Turf Sprint

Race 5: 37% are won by horses over 5-1 TOUGH RACE! California horses have won 5 of 6 but that was on the Hillside course. This race is now a 5 furlong race

#4 Shekky Shebaz is trained by Jason Servis who is winning 29% on the year, 35% shipping, 28% turf starts and Ortiz who wins 33% for him rides. The horse is 2 for 2 at the distance. Ran second in the prep race at Belmont as the favorite but this trainer wins 34% after his favorites are beaten. That race was 6 furlong. This horse has SPEED! Big jump in class 12-1 is great value

#8 Legends of War, again O’Neill is on fire at Santa Anita. This horse has won 2 in a row including a win last out back East where Bejarano flew out to ride, a rare thing. He is 40% for O’Neill and 65% in the money. Sharp work and a 20-1 or more price 

#10 Eddie Haskel for Mark Glatt who is 21% in graded stakes. Rosario rides and he wins 40% for him. Sharp workout the horse loves this distance winning 9 and 4 seconds from 14 starts. Horses aged 6 and older have won 7 of 11 and this horse is 6.

#6 Stormy Liberal has won this race the last 2 years and will go for the record today. However, this is not the same horse. Was easily beaten by Eddie Haskel last out. For use in the trifecta.

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 4

Exacta 4 over 8,10

Trifecta 4 over 8,10,6

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – I AM SWINGING FOR THE FENCES

Race 6: 47% winners are over 5-1. Favorites do poorly in this race with 9 of the last 12  and the last 3 straight not even finishing in the top 3!

#2 Improbable and Bejarano gets the rare mount from Baffert. Nothing but bullet works for this race.  Ran 4th in the G1 last out under Smith. 2 for 2 at the distance. 3rd off the layoff Baffert is 22% I’d love to see Bejarano get a BC win! 10 of the last 12 Dirt Mile winner lost their prep race like Improbable did. 

#5 Omaha Beach is where Smith lands and has won 4 in a row, 3 under Smith. Sharp works in what everyone expects to be a match race. 5 of the last 7 winners have prepped in 1 turn races as Omaha did last out.

#8 Blue Chipper  – 1st off I almost never bet Asian horses in the US. Actually, this may be my 1st time EVER. Prat hops on this horse who has won 7 of 8 including 6 in a row. The 1st Korean trained starter in the Breeders Cup. Was purchased in the Keeneland sales and spent the 3 year old season on the bench. Has dominated since returning to the races. The horse was pre-registered for the Breeders Cup as a 1 year old so this is not your typical overseas horse. 1 workout since coming to the ‘States and that was a 34 second bullet going 3 furlongs Tuesday so the horse travelled very well. We seldom see the Euro imports train that well off the boat.  Prat was enticed to ride and 20-1 or more in a race where the top choices could cancel each other out is too great a value to pass up. Reminds me of our huge Mongolian Groom upset win in the Awesome Again Stakes! I LIKE THIS HORSE A LOT! BEST VALUE PLAY TODAY!

#3 Spun to Run has the top speed in this race but this is a major class jump. I don’t like horses with no listed works but the speed is hard to ignore. I wish the price was higher than 6-1

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 8

Exacta box 2,5,8 and Exacta 8 over 2,5,3

Trifecta 8 over 2,5,3 and Trifecta box 8,2,5,3

Superfecta Box 8,2,5,3

Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Race 7: 33% winners are 5-1 or more. Foreign horses dominate the last 8 years. Aiden O’ Brien is 0 for 13 and California horses are 0 for 40!

#2 Sistercharlie has won 5 in a row and 6 of 7 and has a 3-2 record from 6 races at the distance. Chad Brown is 28% shipping, 28% winner last race and Valazquez rides and he is winning 37% for the trainer. Logical favorite in the race. Oh and trainer Chad Brown has won the race 4 times.

#7 Vasilika is our closer with Prat riding. Was 12th into the turn last out and rallied late going a mile. Prior the horse was 7th in a race going a mile ⅛ and won. The distance looks ideal and the 8-1 price attractive. Sharp works since the win as well. Vasilika has won 11 of 12 at Santa Anita with a 2nd. California horses are 0 for 40 in this race however. Streaks are meant to be broken though!

#12 Fanny Logan has won 4 in a row and is 3 of 4 at the distance and brings the jockey over from Europe. 1st time Lasix the trainer is 2 of 4 and 1 of 3 winner last race. When this trainer brings them they mean business.

#5 Mirth is 20-1 for D’Amato but Smith rides and he is 2 for 2 for the trainer. Won the G1 Rodeo last month, has the top last race speed and comes in with a sharp workout. 20-1 is a great value play and the kind of race Smith wins.

BETTING IDEAS

Exacta box 2,7,12

Trifecta 2,7,12 over 2,7,12  over 2,7,12,5,

Breeders Cup Sprint

Race 8: California horse have won 9 of the last 13 and 3 straight. Longshots win when the race is here at Santa Anita. Frontrunners dominate this race.

#1 Catalina Cruiser is 2 for 2 at this distance. Rosario rides for Sadler/Hronis  and we have some sharp workouts and a 3 race win streak, 2 of those with this jockey

#9 Imperial Hint – trainer is 58% in graded stakes races going 7 of 12 and has won 2 of the last 2 with no Dubai bounce. That in itself says this horse is good. Nothing but bullet works for this race and has the top speed in here. 4-1 I wish we got more.

#4 Mitole is the 9/5 favorite and has won 8 of the last 9 with the loss on a dead rail at Saratoga.. Sharp works but I would place ‘Cruiser on top

#8 Landeskog is an O’Neill horse and Cedillo rides. Ran 2nd at Parx last month in a G2 losing to King Jack on the line and Cedillo flew out to ride. Highest last race speed, sharp workout the 12-1 price is JUICY. – SCRATCHED DAMN!

BETTING IDEAS

Trifecta box 1,9,4

Breeders Cup Mile

Race 9: 56% winners are over 5-1 with 19% over 10-1 = spread race. 6 of the last 7 winners were US Horses. Aiden O’ Brien is 0 for 23 in this race

#5 True Valor has won 2 in a row for Callaghan and this is a Qatar Racing horse. They have won lots of money for us this year. Won a G3 in February then won the G2 here October 5th. Trainer is 23% 2nd off the layoff, 25% winner last race and the 20-1 price is too good to ignore. There is so much speed in this race we need a closer like this. The last two wins came off good early pace.

#2 Lucullan has the top last race speed for trainer Kiaran McLaighlin who is 21% shipping, 22% winner last race and 19% in graded stakes. 10 of the last 12 years the Woodbine Mile has produced 1st thru 3rd including 4 winners. Lucullan ran 3rd and was Dq’d to 4th for drifting late. No works since that last race however but it was October 14th and would the quickest turnaround for this horse.

#9 Circus Maximus is Aiden O’ Brien’s fav in here. Won the G1 Prix du Moulin in France last month beating Line of Duty. They add blinkers today and 1st time Lasix boast. 4 of the last 7 winners prepped in a French race like this horse but Aiden is 0 for 23!.

#11 Uni has won 6 of 7 at the distance for Chad Brown and 6 of the last 7. Bad post position however

#14 Bowies Hero has a bad post position BUT Prat rides so it does not matter plus this horse is a closer in a race loaded with speed. Won at Keeneland last out in a G1 and Prat is winning 50% for D’Amato going 4 of 8. D’Amato is 26% on the year. Prat likely had options and stays here

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 5,2

Trifecta box 5,2,9 over 5,2,9 over 5,2,9,11,14

Breeders Cup Distaff

Race 10: 46% winners over 5-1, 16% over 10-1. 7 of 9 winners of this race at Santa Anita were 3-1 or less.

#1 Paradise Woods  – as the missing ingredient the jockey Cedillo? Won last out after disappointing so many times before. Highest speed at the distance, top dirt speed, red hot trainer and a sharp workout. 5-1 price is GREAT VALUE!

#4 Midnight Bisou has won 7 in a row, 6 of those under Smith who travelled back east to ride. 

#9 Serengeti Express is where Prat lands at 12-1. This horse has speed and Prat is a master of reading races. If no one wants the lead he will take it and may not look back. The horse likes the distance and has spent some time on the bench recently. October works suggest the horse is ready now for a trainer who is 27% on dirt

#5 Dunbar Road is the closer here with great late pace but Ortiz is 0 for 14 for Chad Brown

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 1,9

Trifecta box 1,9 over 1,9,4 over 1,9,4,5,3

Breeders Cup Turf

Race 11: European horses have won 16 of 20 including 5 of 7 at Santa Anita. Aiden O’Brien has won 4 of the last 8 and 3 of 7 at Santa Anita.

#9 Bricks and Mortar is the 9/5 deserving favorite having won 6 in a row. 1st time this long but it looks fine for the horse. Chad Brown trains need I go over his stats again!!!

#4 Mount Everest is an O’Brien horse who won last out at mile and quarter and adds Lasix today. 15-1 for exotic bets. This is the O’Brien horse I like

#1 Zula Alpha has a 3-1-1 from 7 races at the distance with a sharp work for today. Ortez rides and he is 21% for the trainer

#5 Anthony Van Dyck is the other O Brien at 3-1

BETTING IDEAS

Trifecta box 9 over 4,1,5 over 4,1,5

Breeders Cup Classic

Race 12: last 4 winners where 5/2 or less. 

#9 Mongolian Groom was a HUGE 25-1 winner for us in the Awesome Again stakes last month. Cedillo rides and he is 40% for the trainer. I’m not sure of the distance but we have to use in all exotic bets! The winner of the Awesome Again Stakes has won this race 7 times.

#3 Owendale is trained by Brad Cox who is 26% shipping, 27% 3rd off the layoff and 18% in graded stakes. This is my closer. The last 3 wins by this horse were a wait and pounce strategy. The loses where a go fast early failed plan. Sharp workout last week and 15-1 morning line is great value

#7 Higher Power is 1 for 2 at the distance and stumbled badly last out in the race Mongolian Groom beat them all. I had this horse and Mongolian over McKinzie. Sharp works since that last race and the horse is 1 for 2 at the distance

#5 Yoshida is where Smith lands for perhaps some vengeance? Horses that enter off a layoff from Saratoga like this horse have won 3 of the last 4 and a second. With so much speed in here Smith will be flying late at a big price and is a must use in exotics.

#8 Mckinzie was never going to catch Mongolian Groom last out but it cost Smith the ride. Sharp works but again I am not sure of the distance and the price is too low at 3-1 for an inconsistent overrated horse.

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 9,3,5

Trifecta box 9,3,5 over 9,3,5,7,8 over 9,3,5,7,8 

Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $81 with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 5,8,7 (4)*

Race 2: 3,4,5

Race 3: 3,7 (8,3)*

Race 4: 8,6,1

Race 5: 4,8,10

Today’s Race 9 Lat Pick4 will cost $15 with horses listed in preference

Race 9: 5,2,9 (11,14)*

Race 10: 1 (4,9,5)*

Race 11: 9,4 (1,5)*

Race 12: 9,3,7,5,8

Today’s Race 7 Pick 6 will cost $96 with horses listed in preference

Race 7: 2,7,12 (5)*

Race 8: 1,9 (4)*

Race 9: 5,2 (9,11,14)*

Race 10: 1 (4,9,5)*

Race 11: 9 (4,1,5)*

Race 12: 9,3,7,5,8

Full Card Selections

Race 1: 5,8,7 (4)*

Race 2: 3,4,5

Race 3: 3,7 (8,3)*

Race 4: 8,6,1

Race 5: 4,8,10

Race 6: 8,2,5,3

Race 7: 2,7,12 (5)*

Race 8: 1,9,4

Race 9: 5,2,9 (11,14)*

Race 10: 1 (4,9,5)*

Race 11: 9,4 (1,5)*

Race 12: 9,3,7,5,8

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