11-01-2019 Breeders Cup Friday Full Card

I have put my thoughts down on each of my top choices in each race and have included racing stats and comments on each of the Breeders Cup races. My emphasis this weekend will be on value plays in my suggested bets. I have included my suggested bets for each Breeders Cup race as well for the early Pick 5, the Breeders Cup early Pick 5, and both late Pick 4’s (Breeders Cup late Pick 4 and Santa Anita Late Pick 4).

My top jockeys to watch this weekend will be Flavian Prat and Abel Cedillo. Their success will translate to big wins for us. 

RACE 1:

#4 Zestful looks very juicy in here from trainer Mark Glass with Joe Talamo riding. He is 26% for Glatt and this horse is a win machine, winning 5 in a row. The horse has also won going gate to wire at a mile and a half so today’s distance is not an issue. Sharp work for a red-hot trainer with as much speed as the odds on favorite. I doubt we get this 8-1 morning line, if we we we jump on it!

#5 Campaign  -top late pace and will have speed to close into. Distance not an issue

#3 Street to Indy huge jump in class but likes to win and could finish the trifecta at 20-1 or more

# 1 Itsinthepost – beatable

RACE 2: WIDE OPEN = SPREAD RACE

#8 Zuzanna has missed the last 2 times closing late and should have speed to close into today. 5-1 is an okay price but I want higher

#3 Kookie Gal is Cedillo for Miller, seems better on dirt but 1st start off the feb layoff Miller places them well and they race protected today Breeders Cup day – means business at a nice price

#9 Heathers Grey – so so fav

#1 Rayana  -Baffert won debt at this distance 4-1 is a great price

#4 Opus Won 8-1 Velazquez rides for Baltas has 2 wins and a 2nd from the last 3 with Prat riding. 1st start since july. Has the best speed figures of all horse in this race

RACE 3:

#5 Stradari – Prat is riding a 10-1 horse says it all for a small trainer. Was bet to even money in the debut at GG, sharp works but trainer is 0 for 14 in non graded stakes but PRAT is riding!

#7 Mandy –  attracts Paco Lopez to ride for Miller and they are 1 for 1 22% trainer winner last race. Miller is 0 for 9 2nd time Lasix however Moving up in class an exotics play. This is the “other” Miller.

#8 Bulletproof One  has Castellano riding he is 2 for 4 for Miller. Exercise race on 5fl turf last out. Top speed will try to take them gate to wire – is also entered in Breeders Cup race 5

#11 Been Studying Her is a Hollendorfer horse that was unbeaten going shorter until they tried a g1 going a mile and the horse never looked good. Bad favorite in here

RACE 4:

#11 Square Deal – Prat had options and stays here winning 27% for Callaghna who is 26% turf to dirt. We need a single in the Pick 5

#5 Doc Tommy is the other Sadler and Roasio rides at 12-1 so i am interested. Won last out at GG and was claimed then shipped down here. Sadler is 22% non graded stakes and moves the horse up in class but protected

#2 Cali Dude is the other Sadler

BREEDERS CUP Juvenile Turf Sprint

RACE 5:

#2 Band Practice has won 3 in a row in France,  the last being Sept 30 and now ships in here to race at the same distance. 1st time Lasix boost can only help and 12-1 is a great price. This 5 fl speciality distance I am leading with the horse who loves it from Europe.

#5 Encoder is a Sadler/Horonis/Prat horse and they are tough to ignore. Misfired last out as odds on losing to a longshot play going a mile that I like in the next race. Won the debut at 5 furlongs and races back at that distance today. When Prat rides for Sadler/Horis and they are a price you use them

#7 Kimari is a Wesley Ward horse, 2nd start off the layoff won last out after being bumped at the start then surging late. Moves up in class but the trainer is 8% in graded stakes and this jockey is 0 for 12 for him. Those kind of stats make this a beatable favorite. We have to use in the Pick 4 but we will try to beat him.

#9 Four Wheel Drive is another Wesley Ward horse  who is unbeaten including a G3 last out, top last race speed but both the races where going longer. Top speed but the trainers poor stakes results make it another horse we will try to beat but need to use in the Pick 4.

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 2 and 5

Exacta Box 2,5

Trifecta 2,5 with 2,5,7,9 with 2,5,7,9

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

RACE 6: 7 of the last 8 winners were from Europe and O’Brien has won 4 of those

#12 Arizona is the O’Brien fav but bad outside post, trainer is 8% 1st time Lasix and is 0 for 5 1st time routing. 5/2 may end up being a great price but this horse looks very beatable in this race today. The horse he ran second to last out was a European unbeaten megastar and no others in here have raced against anything even close to that pedigree. Another interesting stat – Euro horses who last raced at Newmarket in England have won 3 of 6 at Santa Anita.

#14 Hit the Road is 10-1 with Prat riding for Dan Blacker. The horse has the top last race speed, top back speed. 2nd start off the layoff but the trainer is 0 for 15 in graded stakes. Outside post is bad as I said for the favorite BUT Prat is a master at position. That last race saw this horse blow away Encoder in race 5 who Prat rode and now Prat jumps on here. I  LIKE THIS ONE A LOT at this price.

#4 Decorated Invader is like Structor and can close or go early, adds Lasix today and is a must use for us at 4-1

#2 Structor is 2 for 2 and can win from the back or go gate to wire. I love seeing horses that are versatile. Trainer Chad Brown is 28% shipping, 28% winner last race, 23% graded stakes races and his ITM percentages are off the page.

#6 Graceful Kitten is unbeaten in 3 starts for a trainer 23% on the year and 27% 1st time turf. Brings the winning jockey who is 27% for this trainer its a big jump in class but a horse to consider in exotics

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 14

Exacta Box 12,14

Trifecta 12,14 with 12,14,4,2,6 with 12,14,4,2,6

Breeders Cup Juvenile FIllies

RACE 7: The is the chalkiest Breeders Cup race with favorites winning 51%. However at Santa Anita longshots dominate. 5 of the last 6 winners averaged 20-1 or more. California horses won 6 of 9 when at Santa Anita

#1 Donna Veloce dominated last out winning by 9 for Prat and Callaghan in the debut race. Is she that good for us to take such a low price and beat history? . Prat is 27% for Callaghan. 1st time routing trainer is 23% for a nice ROI and 28% ITM. Sharp works all systems go

#8 Comical is my value play for this race and jockey Abel Cedillo lands here for O’Neill after missing by a neck last out in a G1 to Bast. Identical speed numbers but Bast is a Baffert so 7/2. Cedillo is 2 for 2 for trainer and we have a couple of sharp workouts  I LOVE THE PRICE of 10-1 or more. Doug O’Neills OWNS Santa Anita right now and Cedillo is simply on fire.

# 6 Bast is the Baffert horse that needed a perfect ride by Velazquez to beat Comical by a neck last out. Baffert is 32% winner last race, 26% in graded stakes, 32% with 2 year olds but the works have been so so-, not the typical Baffert works. Did that last race zap the horse?

#7 Wicked Whisper is unbeaten in 2 starts and comes in with a sharp workout and has great speed. This horse will try to go gate to wire and that is why we must use as that tactic has seen

5 of the last 7 winners in this race 

BETTING IDEAS

Exacta Box 1,9,6,7

Trifecta Box 1,9,6,7

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

RACE 8: TOUGH RACE American horses dominate winning 9 of 11  but California horses have never been 1 or 2nd. Trainer Chad Brown has won 5 of 11.

#7 Crystalle ran 2nd behind Selflessly in the Miss Grillo with a devastating late kick. The horse also has the top back speed in this race and that 2nd in the Grillo meets the stat for the race profile. The Belmont Miss Grillo has resulted in 5 of 11 winners of this race including 2 of the last 3. I am placing this horse above Selflessly because he should have won that race easily had jockey Joel Rosario not been in California into the turn in that race. The race prior when closer to the pace he won. 8-1 is fantastic value for this race. Top Play and value in this race.

#2 Croughavouke has closed late in the last 2 to run 2nd under Van Dyke. Master closer Prat now takes the reins and 20-1 is a fantastic price

#13 Selflessly is a Chad Brown horse and he has won this race 4 of the last 5 years so on that alone its a must use. The last race this horse won, the Belmont Miss Grillo has resulted in 5 of 11 winners of this race including 2 of the last 3. 10 of 11 winners of this race where 1st or 2nd in their prep race. Jockey Castellano is 26% for trainer.

# 9 Albigna won a G1 in France last out but the race profile/stats are against

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 7

Exacta Box 7,2,13

Trifecta 7,2 with 7,2,13,9 with 7,2,13,9 

Breeders Cup Juvenile

RACE 9: Unbeaten horses dominate this race with 11 winners HOWEVER in the last 13 years the favorite has gone 4-7-1 and at Santa Anita the favorite is 1-5-0. Who will be post time favorite? Another interesting stat with no much speed is the pacesetter has finished in the money ONCE. 

# 6 Eight Rings is the Baffert who won easy last out and is also undefeated. Sharp works Bafferts huge stats there is not much to say. California horses have won 6 of 9 giving the edge to this horse

#5 Scabbard is ridden by Mike Smith and love him or hate him he owns the Breeders Cup and is the leading active jockey with 26 wins. There is nothing but speed in this race and this is the only real closer now. Can Smith time his ride from Del Mar correctly? Scabbard ran a closing 2nd last out to Dennis’s Moment in an impressive late move after having to steady badly into the turn earlier in the race. There will be pace and horses to close into today.

#1 Dennis’ Moment is unbeaten in 2 starts and comes in with nothing but bullet works. LIke the Baffert favorite this horse also lost its jockey in a race. With Maxfield pulling out of the race it sets up as a match race.

# 4 Storm the Court is ridden by Prat at 20-1 and adds blinkers for more early speed and comes in with a sharp workout. A must use in exotics as well

BETTING IDEAS

Win/Place 5

Exacta Box 6,5,1

Trifecta Box 6,5,1,4

RACE 10:

#4 Eagle Song is Talamo/Glatt at 12-1 and they win 26%. Races protected today with a sharp workout

#8 Threefiveindia

#11 Justinian – Baffert/Bejarano

Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $72 with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 4,5,1

Race 2: 8,3,9,1 (4)*

Race 3: 5,7,8 (11)*

Race 4: 11 (5,2)*

Race 5: 2,5,7,9

Today’s Breeders Cup Race 5 Pick 5 will cost $64 with horses listed in preference

Race 5: 2,5,7,9

Race 6: 12,14 (4,2)*

Race 7: 1,8,6,7

Race 8: 7,13

Race 9: 6,5 (1,4)*

Today’s Breeders Cup Race 6 late Pick 4 will cost $16  with horses listed in preference

Race 6: 12,14 (4,2)*

Race 7: 1,8,6,7

Race 8: 7,13

Race 9: 6,5 (1,4)*

Full Card Selections

Race 1: 4,5,1

Race 2: 8,3,9,1 (4)*

Race 3: 5,7,8 (11)*

Race 4: 11 (5,2)*

Race 5: 2,5,7,9

Race 6: 12,14 (4,2)*

Race 7: 1,8,6,7

Race 8: 7 (13)*

Race 9: 6,5 (1,4)*

Race 10: 8,11,4

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