It was chalky and my longshots fell short but we hit that small Pick 5 yesterday to give us a little ammo for today’s card. It was of course the beatable favorite that won the 5th race beating out our better price payoff!
The Pick 4 today starts off with a favorite who cost $190k and is dropping multiple classes racing against a whole lot of horses who cost $1k to $5k. If that is not a free spot on a card then nothing is! Trainer Callaghan is 29% dropping into maiden claiming races, 26% 1st time claiming. Talamo is the listed jockey but is not racing till next week due to the spill on Thursday. Then again do we trust a horse that cost $190k being given away for $40k?
Buy Today’s Card for $8
Beatable favorites are 8 for 11 now:
Race 1 Indavidualist won easily last week off a 5 month break and therein lies the rub. Quick turnaround by Miller to avert the bounce or big bounce today. Also why risk for a tag so quickly? At 7/5 I am going to try and beat him!
Race 4 Willows Babe has a case of seconditus and does not want to win. Bejarano bails and the morning line price of even money =beatable. That last race was off a 2 month break and returns in 12 days.
Longshots of the Day: Win/place bets on these
Race 1: Mimis Big Boy, hot jockey in the last week going 5-1 from 17 starts hops back on this horse with whom he has 2 wins and a second from 5 races, 1st start off the bench for a trainer 18% on this and we get a fantastic price of 15-1 or more
Race 5: El Tovar at 15-1 with Van Dyke riding on the Hill where he has 4 wins from 10 starts is a must use. Hillside experience and multiple wins count way more than morning line prices in my book! There is a lot of early speed in this race and El Tovar is a fly from the clouds Hillside horse. This is a big jump in class and a big price but as my dad says – the horse does not know his odds and he loves this course!
Race 6: Misty Slew, drops in class today after failing on turf last out but the tries going shorter on dirt prior suggest she could be flying late. It all depends if Pedroza decides to ride or sit on the horse
Race 7: Lambo Luxx, Roman rode a number of lower priced horses in the race their last few races yet stays on this horse at 6-1, was pulled up last out at Del Mar on a 2 win streak
Race 9: Casino Red, Bejarano rides this 1st time Irish for Paddy, adds Lasix, sharp work great price
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”