Back to an 8 card day with some short fields that have lots of possibilities. If the favourites all win the pays will be tiny. We also have a lot of races where every horse has a chance at low prices. We hit a huge longshot yesterday with Mongolian Groom beating the over-hyped McKenzie in the big race. 25-1 was great. We have a similar longshot today in the Pick 4.
Pick 5 I need a single is in race 1 Great Power from trainer Callaghan, with Prat riding for Qatar Racing. They are winning 29% and were a single play on Saturday that won for us. In race 4 Carpe Noctum was rushed to the front end last out and battled on the lead with another horse. A deep closer longshot then gained the upper hand mid stretch but this horse, when he saw the passing horse, popped another gear and gave chase to run second and then pass the winner on the stretch out. I love seeing that will in a horse and the added distance today should be no issue. I prefer this single over the race 1 single.
Pick 4 I need a single is in race 7 Jen Go Unchained drops in class today and has the best speed, class for a trainer who wins 20% dropping into claimers. Singling here allows us to hunt for value in the other races.
Longshots of the Day:
Race 3: Lostinthemoment was a ship and win longshot play for us at Del Mar in the debut and in the following two races but the horse looked great on paper and poor on the track despite nice workouts. Each of those races the horse blasted to the front end and in each race faded as they turned into the stretch. Claimed off that race we again see another sharp work for today’s race for a little known trainer. Diaz sees fit to ride so perhaps we will see a change of tactics or it could be the same strategy, gate to wire and hope the weight break of Diaz adds stamina to the horse. 12-1 or more I will bite at this longshot apple one last time! Rounding for Home is also interesting at 12-1. The horse was bet down in the debut 3 weeks ago but had a very bad trip and puts in another sharp work.
Race 5: Mongolian Humor was claimed for $20k two race back and now races in a Grade 2. The horse however has woke up in a big way this summer winning 2 in a row. Has as much speed as the top choices and put in a very sharp workout last week. 12-1 or more is too good a value to turn away from in a race that is wide open.
Race 8: Commanding Chief was a rare Sadler/Hronis horse that could not win at Del Mar when this duo was winning everything. They try turf for the 1st time today and Prat is lured to ride when he had many other options in this race. When he rides for Sadler it means business as they are 40% right now
Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $64 with horses listed in preference
Race 1: 5,4,6,3(5 single makes the bet $16)
Race 2: 1,4
Race 3: 2,6,4,5
Race 4: 3 (4,6)
Race 5: 4,2,1,3
Today’s Race 5 Late Pick 4 will cost $32 singling with horses listed in preference.
Race 5: 4,2,1,3
Race 6: 6,5,3,2
Race 7: 6 (7,9)
Race 8: 9,5,2,3
Selections for each race with horses listed in preference
Race 1: 5,4,6,3
Race 2: 1,4
Race 3: 2,6,4,5
Race 4: 3 (4,6)
Race 5: 4,2,1,3
Race 6: 6,5,3,2
Race 7: 6 (7,9)
Race 8: 9,5,2,3
Typos happen and I do my best not to make them. Always read through my writeups to make sure the posted numbers are correct. I list Pick 4, Pick 5 selections and also a listing of all plays for each race. If there are any differences, please let me know.
*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”