09-08-2019 Los Alamaitos TB Full Card

Short fields but there are a couple of potential value plays. 

Pick 5 I need a single is race 1 Verynki should easily handle this bunch. Won in July at Del Mar at this distance then jumped in class for a turf race experiment that resulted in a poor performance. Last month at Del Mar was leading at the 5 half furlong mark going 6 furlongs but lost by 1 ½. Back to the right distance and dropping for the money run.

Pick 4 I need a single is race 9 Fuega has the top race speed and drops in class today. Won at this distance during the summer. Should dominate these at low odds

Longshots of the Day:

Race 2: Bean and the Bug is a Desormeaux debuter for a 19% win rate sire. There are two high cost Bafferts in here but if they were so good why here and not Del Mar? 10-1 is too good not to try.

Race 3: Papa Caballero is 6-1 after winning at nighttime beating the horse inside who is 4-1 morning line? Price discrepancy means we could get great value.

Race 5: Lil’ Chieftain drops in class and races protected today 1st start since December at Golden Gate. If he is a fraction of himself from last year he will utter destroy this field. We are getting 5-1 with a couple of sharp works and a 5 furlong fitness workout. 

Race 6: Navy Queen drops in class today and races protected after a closing 3rd in both starts at Del Mar. She has speed. She has a tendency to push early fade back and then come running late. In a race full of poor debuters the race profile could set up very nicely if jockey J.C. Diaz can keep her a little closer into the turn. 9/2 is good value in a valueless card today. 

Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $18 with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 2

Race 2: 1,3,2

Race 3: 1,5

Race 4: 1,6

Race 5: 4,1,6

Today’s Race 6 Late Pick 4 will cost $36 singling with horses listed in preference.

Race 6: 6,3,4,7 (6 can be a single to reduce ticket)

Race 7: 2,3,4

Race 8: 2,1,3

Race 9: 2 (4,6)*

Selections for each race with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 2

Race 2: 1,3,2

Race 3: 1,5

Race 4: 1,6

Race 5: 4,1,6

Race 6: 6,3,4,7 (6 can be a single to reduce ticket)

Race 7: 2,3,4

Race 8: 2,1,3

Race 9: 2 (4,6)*

Typos happen and I do my best not to make them. Always read through my writeups to make sure the posted numbers are correct. I list Pick 4, Pick 5 selections and also a listing of all plays for each race. If there are any differences, please let me know.

*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections. 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”

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