09-01-2019 Del Mar Full Card

Only one more day after today. The Late Pick 4 looks attractive today with lots of potential longshots and a very beatable overpriced favorite.

UNION TRIBUNE VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY:

Seventh Race No.1 Foray (5-1)

Foray ran 5th last out but should have won the race easy and on the gallop out was lengths ahead of everyone else. The horse was absolutely loaded for a big move into the stretch but could not get any room on the rail. A small pocket opened briefly and jockey Jorge Velez went for it but was shut out, and had to steady. When a lane opened it was too late. Sadler/Horonis are winning at Del Mar and today’s 5-1 price is a very attractive value play.

Pick 5 I need a single is race 5 KP Indy for Mullins 2nd time grass and he is winning 40%. Ran a closing 2nd at 5 furlongs in the debut and now stretches out to a mile

Pick 4 I need a single is race  – none today I am value hunting

Matera in race 8 looks like a very beatable favorite. She cost $1.4m and ran 3rd in the debut. I was at Del Mar early that day and the same owner had 2 horses, this one trained by Hollendorfer and a $575k horse trained by Baffert Stellar Sound who won. Baffert saddled his horse. Stellar ran yesterday and stunk up the track, granted it was longer that the debut but still. The owner paid zero attention to this horse. 9/5 is a ridiculous price and simply it’s because of the $1.4m cost. You have to use in the Pick 4 but its VERY beatable.

Longshots of the Day:

Race 1: Eye On Tiger won her debut easily on August 9th at 5 furlongs but it was not very fast. However, trainer Mendez is 50% winning 2 of 4 winner last race, 20% with 2 year olds and all with big in the money percentages. 8-1 seems very generous. Little Cents looks very live here and the last race was a lot like our longshot winner Friday under Cedillo. The horse tracked nicely in 3rd, was loaded for a late move and waited for a lane as Cedillo swung out and blasted home for the win. 15-1 seems like we are being given free money in this race.

Race 6: Super Klaus moves up in class off a win last out going 7fl and shortens up today. This trainer has 5 wins and 5 seconds from 19 starts at the meet for a 26% win rate and the jockey has 2 wins and a place from the last 3 for this trainer. Tough post position but the 12-1 morning line price is great.

Race 7: Foray ran 5th last out but should have won the race easy and on the gallop out was lengths ahead of everyone else. The horse was absolutely loaded for a big move into the stretch but could not get any room on the rail. A small pocket opened briefly and jockey Jorge Velez went for it but was shut out, and had to steady. When a lane opened it was too late. Sadler/Horonis are winning at Del Mar and today’s 5-1 price is a very attractive value play.

Race 8: Aqua Seaform Shame has Prat riding for Baltas in the debut and they win 36%. We are getting 8-1 and while Blatas does not excel in races like this (6% debuting and 7% debutin MSW)  the presence of Prat and the tight trainer race mean its live enough and the odds are good enough to take a swing.. Sharp workouts but not at Del Mar.

Race 9: Nolo Contesto is again Prat but it’s a Sadler/Horonis horse and they have owned these stakes  races at Del Mar this summer. 8-1 seems a crazy price. Tried turf for the 1st time a couple of weeks ago and lost by a head coming on late to Carnivorous who won by a head bob Saturday. Prat jumps on today and the added distance looks ideal. Oh please give us this price!

Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $27 singling with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 7,2,1

Race 2: 10,1,8

Race 3: 1,4,7

Race 4: 10,4

Race 5: 10 (5,3,9)*

Today’s Race 7 Late Pick 4 will cost $40 singling with horses listed in preference.

Race 7: 1,5,2,4

Race 8: 10,7,9,4

Race 9: 9,4,5,7,8

Race 10: 4,(3)*

Selections for each race with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 7,2,1

Race 2: 10,1,8

Race 3: 1,4

Race 4: 10,4

Race 5: 10 (5,3,9)*

Race 6: 9,6,1

Race 7: 1,5,2,4

Race 8: 10,7,9,4

Race 9: 9,4,5,7,8

Race 10: 4 (3)*

Typos happen and I do my best not to make them. Always read through my writeups to make sure the posted numbers are correct. I list Pick 4, Pick 5 selections and also a listing of all plays for each race. If there are any differences, please let me know.

*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections. 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *