We hit the late Pick 4 yesterday and it was a chalky pay but our 12-1 longshot in the 9th race did everything we said she would do, flying late, hitting the lead and then on the line on the head bob a dead heat. Holding on would have meant a very nice Pick 4 win for our meager $27 bet. We made a profit yes but the dead heat with the favorite chopped our potential pay 75%. Longshots are really starting to make their presence known as the summer meet comes to an end. Let’s find some price gems to profit from today! Jockey Van Dyke has cooled off a bit from last Sunday’s 7 wins from 8 races performance. Prat who has been leading all meet is riding in 7 races today so keep a close eye on him as well. The last two summers saw a similar set up into the last week and Prat ignited for wins to take the title. These are two jockeys to consider on every mount into closing day. The Pick 4 today looks like it could pay large as it is one of the hardest I have seen this meet.
For the 3rd day in a row the sure thing favorite single in our Pick 5 failed to get the job done. It is getting old not being able to rely on the horses that should get the job done.
Caveman betting strategy: $2 win/place on every Van Dyke and Prat horse today. That simple strategy will cost you $52.
Pick 4 I need a single is race – none I am longshot shopping in a tough Pick 4 sequence
Pick 5 I need a single is in race – dare I make another single in the Pick 5 sequence after a horrible ride, a bad favorite, and the “other Baffert” have taken us out recently! Let’s try again. Race 2 Irish Terrier has run 2nd 3 straight times getting beat on the line each time. Highest last race speed and top dirt speed in the race. Today is picture day. Daily Double with Powder in Race 3
Race 3 Powder picks up Prat for trainer Miller who races the horse for the same claiming price he picked her up from off the win Aug 3. Highest speed, Prat wins 57% for Miller. Miller is winning 30% 1st off the claim.
Beatable favorite today is race 5 Sea Sensation with Desormeaux riding. Kent is 0-13 for the trainer and after that lazy ride yesterday in race 4 he should be facing a suspension for a few days. Use in the Pick 5 but absolutely look to beat this favorite. This is a wide open race 2/1 on this horse with this rider – lets beat them!
Longshots of the Day:
Race 4: Mucho Gusto, the “other Baffert” ridden by Talamo who knocked out the sure thing Baffert yesterday. Talamo won that race yesterday impressively. It was his ride and Baffert rewards that. Talamo is now winning 33% for Baffert. The works here are identical to the other Baffter favorite. Why 8-1? He cost only $625k, the favorite cost $925k and dad ran in graded races winning 5 of 8 for $1.7m! Mucho sire won 9 of 25 for $5m+. The same owner owns both Baffert horses. Use both and look for this to win!
Race 5: Funny Bean is 20-1 morning line and likely will be higher. 3rd start off the layoff we have a series of bullet works. This horse ran 2nd here in November at similar odds. This is the type of longshot that can win here at the beach
Race 6: L.A Coliseum, ships in off the win and claim by Miller from New Mexico. This is not a world-beaters race and is similar to race 9 yesterday with our 12-1 longshot winner. Miller is looking for the ship n win bonus money, adds the apprentice jockey for the weight break which will matter in the stretch. Miller is 25% claiming, 21% 1st off the claim. They risk today to get the win and the paycheck. 6-1 is a great price! Horses over 5-1 win this race 25% of the time.
Race 7: Fizzy Friday, Miller is 42% going from sprint to route to sprint for a big ROI and the jockey is winning 21% for him. 3rd start off the layoff
Race 8: Mo Soul, has not raced in 2 years but Baze rides for Glatt and they are winning 25%. Horse is undefeated and 1 for 1 at Del Mar. Giant price and races protected today. 2 years rest is a lot of bills that need paying. Big price good chance. This is a longshot biased race with 44% of past winners priced at 5-1 or more
Race 10: Lucky Wally, owner/trainer Brinkerhoff is 3 of 4 for 75% at Del Mar. He puts Roman on and they are winning 33% together. Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters. This is a horrible race to end the card so why not go with a debut horse for a winning owner at 15-1 or more and we had a sharp 4fl work on August 15th and a maintenance work 4 days ago. Very live at a price
Today’s Late Pick 4 beginning in race 7 will cost $72 with horses listed in preference.
8,6,4 (1)
9,6,10,11
2,4,9,11 (1)
12,5,8
Today’s Early Pick 5 beginning in race 1 will cost $22.50 with horses listed in preference
3,5,6
7,(8,3)
4,(7,3)
2,3,8
9,5,2,6,10
Race 6:
2,4,9
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”