Update: Race 3 use 2,3, Pick 5 bet drops to $18
In race 8 use 4,9,12
The turf rails are at 12 feet today for the 4 o clock start time. Bug Boy Roman has taken a 4 race lead in the jockey race but has had 18 more mounts than Prat in second. He is actually starting to get rides Prat and Bejarano would have gotten before his surge. Right now he is winning 19% and 45% in the money. Prat is winning 18% with 52% in the money. Baze is a 9% win rate at the moment. The highest win rate so far is Gonzalez at 22% but he has only ridden 27 horses. Keep an eye on his mounts as he is due to heat up and when he wins he wins in bunches.
Today’s Full Card including the Pick 6 is only $8
Race 1: Cute Knows Cute – ran green in a debut race that saw 4 next out winners. Roman and Miller are 33%, Miller is 30% dropping into maiden claiming, 23% 2nd start and 28% 1st time claiming. The 1st race has been my nemesis of late but this is not a sequence I wanted to spend a lot on so this is my stand!
Pick 4 I need a single is in Race 6 First Responder is an Ellis horse who last raced a year ago here at Del Mar and ran 2nd that day off a 6 month break so can fire fresh. Talamo rides for daddy in law and we have done very well with this set-up this year. Dropping into a claimer here after sitting on the bench with bills to pay very likely to live here if they are willing to risk! Ellis is 26% on this move as well.
Longshots of the Day:
Race 5: Run Like Rhett, can go gate to wire like last race or close and that should be helpful today with the posts at 12 feet. Win rider Baze bails for the favorite but Theriot does hit on longshots here
Race 9: Knowitallhousewife – name says it all! The last race today has never been won by a horse over 10-1 in 24 races and has been won by horses under 5-1 79%
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $24 with horses listed in preference
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”