07-27-2019 Del Mar Full Card Saturday

We hit the late Pick 4 again but it was a small one. We continue to see our longshot big plays just miss or have really bad trips. Today that could change! This is one of the most difficult cards I’ve had to handicap in many months and that means some big prices should be seen at Del Mar today.

If you are going to Del Mar this summer be sure to stop by and say Hi. I will be hosting the Newcomers Seminar every Friday and Sunday inside the main gate.

UNION TRIBUNE VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY:

Sixth race. No. 6, Clem Labine (8-1)

Allowance races have offered some of the best value in recent months in Southern California racing. Trainers and owners can use these races to jump their horses up in class to see if they are as good as they think and win larger purses without having to risk losing said horses to a claim. Clem Labine won his debut race up North last November and then hit the bench. He came back for trainer Steve Myadi last month, broke slow, rushed up and tracked 3rd before running on for a closing second. This jockey is 3 of 7 for the trainer and when you bet them you make a profit. The morning line price of 8-1 will likely drift higher and is great value in this wide open race.

Pick 5 I need a single is race 3 Cruel Intention from trainer Baffert, 2nd start off the layoff we see nothing but best of the day workouts to get ready for today’s win.

Pick 4 I need a single is in race 8 Cistron, probably the toughest race on the card but if I had to land on a single it would be here. I really want to see Victor win a big race for Sadler at Del Mar after his accident exactly a year ago that almost ended his career.  It would be a remarkable turnaround. 

Longshots of the Day:

Race 4: Ghost Street moves to turf for trainer Paddy Gallagher for the 2nd race and this is likely what was the plan. Dam has 3 winner from 4 starters including 2 on turf. Red hot jockey and a sharp work with a 10-1 or more price a great alternative to the favorite Hackberry

Race 5: My Way Out is a 2nd time starter from trainer Andrew Lerner who had a huge last few months at Santa Anita. He is winning 32% on the year from 56 starts and at Del Mar he is 1-1-1 from four starts. Jockey Rueben Fuentes is winning 44% for this trainer and has two wins and a second from the last three starts. 5-1 is excellent value.

Race 7: True To Herself is a 1st time Irish horse and you know I always bet those AND we get Prat onboard for the 1st start. This is an optional claiming race but the horse is not risked so they picked this softer spot for the easy confidence win. Prat and Baltas are winning 33% at the meet going 3-1-1 from 9 starts. Some sharp works recently including one over the Del Mar turf course. 5-1 is a great price. Invincebella is a 1st time Uk horse  of lower class but the price is too attractive to ignore

Race 8: Desert Law is another Carl gaines 3rd off the bench starter like our longshot pick Smokey Image yesterday. Probably the worst ride we have seen from Prat on that horse yesterday with a big chance to win so let’s look at this Carla horse. Bejarano rides. Drew away and won easy last out and we get a series of sharp workouts. 12-1 morning line is great. With so much early speed in this race I wanted a price closer and landed here. This is a VERY tough race 

Race 9: Dolci is the other trainer McCarthy’s horse except Prat does not ride this one and we are getting 10-1. The same owner/trainer and the horses cost almost the same price. Same sire, similar dam stats but Prat is not riding is the only reason we get this price!

Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $48 singling with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 2,1,8,3

Race 2: 7,3,5,2

Race 3: 2 (1,4)*

Race 4: 6,8

Race 5: 10,4,6

Today’s Race 6 Late Pick 5 will cost $48 with horses listed in preference.

Race 6: 4,3,2,6 (7)*

Race 7: 7,2,6

Race 8: 3,2 (7,4,1)*

Race 9: 2,6,5,3

Selections for each race with horses listed in preference

Race 1: 2,1,8,3

Race 2: 7,3,5,2

Race 3: 2 (1,4)*

Race 4: 6,8

Race 5: 10,4,6

Race 6: 4,3,2,6 (7)*

Race 7: 7,2,6

Race 8: 3,2 (7,4,1)*

Race 9: 2,6,5,3

*Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections. 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.