Rain is in the forecast today and with 5 of the 9 races slated for the turf course makes handicapping harder than usual. I am handicapping today for all races being run on turf and there are a number of longshots I really like on the card!
Yesterday we almost had another huge Pick 4 win with our single doing the job and then a price horse in the next let of 12-1. The 3rd leg did us in unfortunately but the big trifecta in the last race was a nice consolation prize.
Pick 4 I need a single is in race 6 Sneaking Out who has won 4 in a row (Dq’d in the last to second for drifting out). Top speed in the race for a trainer finally heating up at Santa Anita we also get a best of the day workout last week, a bullet 5 furlongs in 58 seconds. Gate to wire.
Pick 5 I need a single is in race 2 Beyond Pleasure with Prat riding for Baltas. Moves back to dirt, drops multiple classes and has nothing to beat in here. Baltas is 37% turf to dirt, Prat wins 36% for Baltas, they have been on fire of late together and they add blinkers for even more speed. Take the free spot.
Longshots of the Day:
Race 3: Outlaw jumps up multiple classes for Miyadi who is 20% on this move. Won last out on dirt so I am using today expecting this race to be taken off turf, Bejarano takes the call and the price is right
Race 5: Senoradiablo in the last seven races has 4 wins and three seconds. This horse is always around the wire. Trainer Manuel Ortiz is 34% going from sprint to route like today. This trainer is also 28% for the year and is 22% shipping in like today. The only horse risked for a claim in this race at $80k is not a red flag as they have made $100k already with her and with a 12-1 morning line might be hoping to sneak by. If she wins and is claimed double win for the connections!
Race 7: Lady Subee is 15-1 morning line and a play for a move to dirt where they should be racing her anyways. Her best races come on dirt and off tracks yet they continue to run on turf. Sadler/Espinoza are winning 45% at the meet
Race 8: Vander Kelen is 8-1 morning and should creep higher if there are no scratches. Jockey Tiago Pereira is winning 50% for trainer Matt Glatt who is also 24% 3rd off the layoff like today. Won last out closing to beat the Saturday race two odds on favorite Kidmon and not risked today for a claim in a big sign of confidence. We also get a sharp workout when it is not needed for claim bait in this Allowance race.
Race 9: Etterbay Ucklay ran out of room closing last out so the added distance and this race moving to dirt should give us a great price on this Talamo/Ellis horse that we used last out as a longshot. Today is the day!
Today’s Race 6 Late Pick 4 will cost $18 depending on singles with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $67.50 with horses listed in preference
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”