Kabooom! It was somewhat chalky again and paid $223 but our Pick 4 bet only cost $24 and we hit our 15-1 longshot Trifecta in the last race to take home the prize. A big day of racing today with the Kentucky Derby. Just like the Derby we will be dealing with wet weather today at Santa Anita along with an early post time. My free plays for the Derby will be posted after the Santa Anita coverage here. I am handicapping the card today for races staying on turf. If they come off I am likely to just take whatever the post time fav’s are if we have scratches and will be looking to keep the tickets small.
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Possible singles today:
In race 2 XX
In race 5 Sircat Sally comes into this race undefeated off a G3 win, I will take the free spot on the Pick 5 ticket to keep it small!
Longshots of the Day: Win/place bets on these
Race 1: XX
Race 3: This’s How We Roll, has a 3rd at this distance on a wet/fast track like we could see today and has very good speed
Race 8: XXX
Race 10: Fashion Business, 1st time Euro debut moving up in class off a win last out in the UK, same ownership group as the name of this race! I am hoping we get over 10-1 as this race is win by those prices 32%, however, horses over 5-1 and this horse is 6-1 right now win 48%!
Race 11: XXX
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference.
KENTUCKY DERBY SPECIAL
Irish War Cry – won prep race with 103 Beyer and has 2+ 100+ readings this year and ideal post position today – My top choice
McCracken – lost his prep race but can close like a freight train and was unbeaten prior to the misfire last out, trainer is 0-9 in Derby
Sonneteer – Desormeaux brothers are 31% and remember Exagerrator, we get 50-1 or higher and can also fly from the clouds down the stretch
J Boys Echo – earned a 102 Beyer in previous race
Always Dreaming – won prep race, trainer/jockey are 37%, sharp works into this one and my Dad has liked him since day one
Some racing stats on the race that led to my choices today. The last 6 Derby winners won their previous race. Last year Exaggerator was the only horse with a 100+ Beyer in their prep race and this year Irish War Cry meets that criteria. J Boys Echo scored a 100+ reading in the Gotham. There is lots of speed in the race this year and with the rain it could set the stage for a closing winner. Trifecta’s are only 50c at Churchill Downs but the Superfectas are $1 so emphasis and better value is trifecta bets
WIN BETS on the 5 choices
Late Double Top 5 choices WITH Hard Scramble in Race 13
50c Trifecta key Irish War Cry with the top 4 choices costs $6
50c Trifecta Box with top 5 choices costs $30
Late Pick 4 beginning Race 11 costs $15
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”05-06-17