UPDATE: Race 9 the horses are
Well we had a nice $669 Pick 4 win yesterday IF one did not single the ⅘ odds on donkey that was out for exercise in the 1st leg race 5! 20-1 longest shot on the board and my 2nd choice. Hopefully the rest of you used it to make your pick 4 ticket $36. I did not! What is it with these horrendous favorites during the Winter Meet! We have eleven races to handicap today but alas, yet again, we have rain in the forecast for both today and tomorrow. I am writing this intro before I go through and handicap the card so let us see what kind of bets we are going to make. By now you all know my preference for off cards. Morning line horse is 20-1, post time they are even money favorite in the middle of a sequence! Fine if one handicaps doubles etc but for us doing the Pick 4 and Pick 5 it blows!
Ok my analysis is done and weather be damned I like this card and am upping my bets!
Race 9 is a WIDE OPEN race that should pay handsomely on exotic bets. Superfecta and trifecta boxes a must for this race.
Pick 4 I need a single is: none today longshot shopping
Pick 5 I need a single is race 5 Bellafina, likely goes off 1/9 need I say more
Longshots of the Day:
Race 3: Conquest Daddyo 1st race since April races protected today and comes in with a sharp work, a big price and has the highest speed at the distance
Race 6: A Filly Can Dream, drops in class today and moves turf to dirt for a trainer 23% on this move. Shortens up to 6fl after going gate to wire last out on turf to fade to 3rd deep stretch losing by only two lengths. Go fast and wire jockey Maldonado takes the reigns at a big 12-1 or more price. Must use in rolling doubles and pick 3 bets
Race 8: Mr. Paytience flew last out going 6fl to tire late and dead heat for 2nd. O’Neill takes the blinkers off today on the stretch out to 6 ½ to ration some of that speed and he is 20% on this move. He is also 26% beaten favorite and we are getting 8-1 morning line because Baffert has the favorite and let’s be honest Baffert has sucked in So. Cal this year. Unfortunately I don’t think we will get is great 8-1 morning line price!
Race 9: India Mutuana, picks up Rosario as Baze sticks with the favorite but that may have been a mistake. 2nd start off the layoff the horse has two G3 wins going 1 3/8ths. Today’s distance looks ideal. Has the top early speed so Rosario can gun from the gate and get position. If this horse is leading at the 1st turn we have a big chance at a big price. Half the time this race is won by horses over 5-1
Today’s Race 8 Late Pick 4 will cost $42 depending on singles with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Race 1 Early Pick 5 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”