08-11-2018 Del Mar Full Card

UPDATE

Pick 5 use 4,1,7 in race 1

New bet total is $36

 

My $81 Pick 5 returned a nice $900 payoff yesterday when one of our longshots won, Wild Wild Kingdom. Too bad we didn’t get that 20-1 morning line as word got out and the price dropped to 6-1. We almost swept the card yesterday running 2nd and 3rd in the last race of the day of the Pick 4. Our 25-1 longshot got boxed in on the turn and should have won that race for a very big payoff. Still, our handicapping is right there as we head into a 10 race card for Saturday. The fields are modest in the early races with a wide open Pick 4 sequence. There is a Super High Five carryover in the last race today so I have added extra selections for that bet as some of you have requested it!

 

If you are at Del Mar this summer be sure to stop by the Newcomers Seminar and say hello as I will be hosting it each Sunday one hour before the first race at the main entrance.

 

 

 

Pick 4 I need a single is race 7 Kodiak West 1st time Irish horse racing in the US off a 4th place run last month in France in a G3 race. French jockey on a French raced horse 1st time Lasix boast. Euro horses always get a major upgrade by me 1st time US

 

Pick 5 I need a single is in race 3 Instagrad who won by 10 easy lengths in his debut in June and in this 5 horse field seems to have scared off everyone else! Inside post in such a small field should not matter and the three subsequent works suggest just keeping the horse dialed in!

 

 

Longshots of the Day:

Race 4: Curlina Curlina, this trainer does not win often but he is in the money in 38% of his races, 31% maiden claiming, 26% routing, 33% dirt starts. Horse is winless in 28 starts but is always around the line in the top 5 so for an exotics horse at a big price a must use and we get a sharp work for this. Trainer owned as well and we are at Del Mar on a Saturday, win and be seen! Watch tote for a betdown as a live indicator

Race 5: Beautiful Becca, this horse can close or try to gate to wire so Talamo has options from this outside post. Has the highest last race speed and this race is won by horses over 5-1 a nice 46%, 29% of that 5-1 to 10-1. The favorite only wins this race 17%

Race 7: Ladybug, sharp works off the bench since last racing late June, turf speed is tops and is moving up in class so we get 12-1 or more. Flies from the clouds on a turf track that is not rewarding to such a style so if Desormeaux can stay a little closer this time we look great. Horse has been favored in the last 5 races so people see something and each race has been progressively better

Race 9: Miraculously, Baltas ships in from the claim back east for the bonus money with a couple of decent works here. East coast turfers, even so-so ones tend to do well out here. Being risked for a tag 1st off the claim and has a 1-2 record from 3 starts at the distance and a nice 12-1 or more price

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 beginning in race 5 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.

1,3,7 (6)

5,4,6

7,10,8,1

6,4 (10,7,1,3)

 

Today’s Early Pick 5 beginning in race 1 will cost $48 with horses listed in preference

6,4,1

2,3

1 (2)

1,2,9,4

6,2,7,1

 

 

Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”