Some very short fields await us today and with that a quandary. Favorites hit it will pay low but favorites lately have been killing sequences and spending money on tickets today could see you lose money even if they hit. Yesterday’s card where I could not find any favorites was bomb central but it was longshots you would never land on unless you were just number picking or 15 beers in. Actually even 15 beers in I would not have landed on them, not even in handicapping contests!
In race 1 yesterday I choose the most logical paper horse ridden by Desormeaux for Hess. I pointed out negatives on the single but let me say Desormeaux and Hess are horrendous at Del Mar right now. They couldn’t win a 1 horse race at the moment – streaks matter at this track and this one is glaring! You are forced to use their rides still but for singles no way! Kent rides the favorite in race 1 today, on turf – gulp! Race 5 is won by horses over 5-1 54% of the time and 46% of that is 10-1 or more! Race 7 is won by horses over 5-1 50% of the time as well.
If you are at Del Mar this summer be sure to stop by the Newcomers Seminar and say hello as I will be hosting it each Sunday one hour before the first race at the main entrance.
Pick 4 I need a single is race – none
Pick 5 I need a single is in race 4 Lookie Loo from Baffert but Prat is riding. Sharp works, early speed and shortens up today
Longshots of the Day:
Rac 1: Typhoon Harry, lots of class droppers at low odds in here so lets take a swing at a price horse who won last out on dirt, gets bug boy Fig on the class rise and tries turf for the 1st time. Just as good speed as the top choices and we get 10-1
Race 3: Charming Slew, I used that last race on the combo of Stevens/French but she pulled and was steadied early using up energy. I really liked her that day. A clean path today at 6-1 or more looks really good in this race
Race 5: Lady Lemon Drop in a race won by longshots this Miyadi horse gets a 10 pound weight break, a big difference maker at the distance. Was 4 wide in last race at GG at the distance to miss by 3 lengths with 2 next out winners, lighter and tighter today!
Race 7: Hailey Rachel, when I see a trainer who ROI is off the charts I pay attention. He is 20% 1st turf for a 15 ROI and 20% dirt to turf same stat ROI. Won by 6 last out on dirt
Today’s Late Pick 4 beginning in race 5 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Early Pick 5 beginning in race 1 will cost $27 with horses listed in preference
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”