08-04-2018 Del Mar Full Card

10 races await us today and the Pick4 today sees loaded fields with 10-12 horses in each leg and the lowest prices across the entire sequence is 7/2. Even if the favorites win this should be a handsome payoff today. Prat is riding elsewhere today so that sure bet jockey is no help in a very tough card! Today in the Pick 5 I am looking to get to the last race  – spread and win. The last race on the card today is won by horses over 10-1 a whopping 55%! I found the Pick 4 sequence very hard to whittle down so I am including all the horses I considered today.

 

If you are at Del Mar this summer be sure to stop by the Newcomers Seminar and say hello as I will be hosting it each Sunday one hour before the first race at the main entrance.

 

 

Pick 4 I need a single is race 7 Babael who will break from the 10 post due to scratches and that is the top post in sprints at Del Mar winning 30%. Debut race for trainer Ellis and Roman rides because son in law Talamo is riding Draft Pick back east. Sharp works for this including a best of 95 last week. Red flag here though is trainer is 4% or 1 of 25 with debut maiden special weights and 7% or 1 of 72 in maiden special weights races

 

Pick 5 I need a single is in race 5 Royal Descendant who adds blinkers off a 2nd place finish in June. Jockey rode the 2nd choice horse in both her races and chooses this filly for a trainer he is winning 21%, another stamp of approval. Top speed in the race, trainer is 31% 2nd career race, 24% blinkers and we get a sharp workout 2 weeks ago followed by 2 keep in shape works – she’s ready to fire!

 

 

Longshots of the Day:

Race 2: Artistic Ab, bug boy re-rides off the win last out and chooses this 10-1 horse over the 2-1 favorite he rode last out that is dropping multiple classes. Moving up in class

Race 6: Cummings, ships in from Arlington and jockey Joe Bravo flies over from racing at Saratoga yesterday to ride this and one other horse today that is priced at 12-1? Trainer is 1 of 4 at Del Mar, 22% winner last race which was 5fl on turf and we get sharp works. Very interesting at a price

Race 7: Union Station, Smith rides a 12-1 debut horse for Harty but its a Godolphin horse and Baffert has a horse in here. Could be out for a spin but the presence of Smith makes it interesting. If this horse needs to be jockeyed we are screwed but if not $$$

Race 8: Tisbutadream, 1st time Euro horses I always bet and we get 20-1 or more for a horse who did run G2-3 races overseas and if you read the form lines she has early speed and she fights to win and you cannot train that into horses. 10 pound weight break from UK races, 1st time Lasix , trainer is 22% off a layoff and look at the dams dpi figure – 25 holy smokes!

Race 10: Pointed, race stats we need a bomber and we get this horse dropping in class with a sharp work last week and attracts Gonzalez. Turf speed as good as any in this race and this jockey upgrade and 20-1 looks very attractive

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40 with the single with horses listed in preference.

12,6,5,3

6,11,4,5,7

1,9 (4,5)

2,10 (1,5)

 

Today’s Early Pick 5 will cost $54 with singles with horses listed in preference

8,6,9

2,6,5,1

5,6,1

5,2,1

3 (5)

 

 

Race 6:

8,3,6

 

 

Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”