Well it came down to a single in the last race, an even money one, to take down a tiny Pick 4 win so of course the favorite choked! Today’s 11 race card is one that should reign chaos but said chaos lately has not resulted in the large payoffs that typically accompany them. However today’s card looks fantastic! The Pick 4 today is a 7 furlong maiden race that the racing secretary is laughing at us with! Handicap this! This winner of race 8 is priced 5-1 to 10-1 a whopping 42% from 26 races.
With the Breeders Cup next weekend expect to see a lot of top name jockeys and trainers from back East this weekend.
The last weekend of racing is a loaded one with 11 races the next two days and an early start time. Del Mar begins on Wednesday and then the Breeders Cup. I will have a detailed analysis for all the Breeders Cup Races up for presale this weekend!
Breeders Cup Presale only $25 for Both Days
Beatable favorites are 8 for 12 now:
Longshots of the Day: Win/place bets on these
Race 3: Prieta, Mandella races two in here and Prat lands here at 8-1 off the bench since a 5th in her debut in May. Perfect price for the Hillside course
Race 6: Lake Time, sharp work, ran a closing 3rd at this distance on dirt last out, has some serious speed and has the right profile to win this Hillside race for us at a big price, best speed, best closing speed and best class in this race
Race 8: Calexman, Cerin is 32% at SA from 19 runners and attracts Stevens on the ship in from Woodbines all weather track, he cost $240k this year, adds Lasix, tries dirt in his second race and given what they paid for him plus the race experience and he meets the race profile odds (42% winners are 5 to 10-1)
Race 9: Channel Maker, toss out the last race a G1 going 1 1/2 miles and prior at the same distance he won, always around at the wire we have a sharp work for this race that is won by horses over 5-1 a whopping 54% and over 10-1 its 27%. Morning line for this horse is 10-1!
Race 11: Copper Wind, Prat hops on for Mandella who is 33% 2nd time grass and we get 10-1 and this is usually when Mandella wins, when he’s not supposed to, he closed late on the Hillside course in his debut gaining lengths in the lane so the distance should be perfect
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $60 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $24 with horses listed in preference.
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”