09-03-2017 Del Mar Full Card

UPDATE: Race 9

Go Ghetto scratched so I am using the Talamo/Ellis horse Seeking the West

The Pick 4 drought is over! Finally after so many 3 of 4’s and having our sure thing singles do us in we took home a modest $75 win for our meager $18 bet. There are only two days left in the meet so let’s see if we can connect on some nice payoffs! We have another very competitive 10 race card today. Jockey Flavian Prat had a big day yesterday and now leads the jockey race by 3 wins. Trainers Baltas and D’Amato are again fighting down to the wire for the trainers title. Pay attention to these jockeys and trainers in the next two days. There is a chance for thunderstorms today that may impact racing. If we have scratches as is my usual on rain days I will just go with the selections we have.

 

I will be hosting the Newcomers Seminar just inside the front gates tomorrow so if you are at the track for closing day stop by and say hi. The seminar begins an hour before the race 1 post time.

 

Today’s Full Card is only $8.

 

http://californiapick4.com/handicapping-products/

 

Race 2 is won by horse 5-1 to 10-1 at a 32% rate and the 5/2 favorite has run 2nd both times. My point is this race is ripe for a price so I am spreading. Highly Acclaimed with Talamo riding has serious heat and is on the rail where 22% of winners are coming, 1st start since October and racing protected. Prat hops on a 15-1 horse Rim Ditch who won in December and comes in protected for a small trainer, did I mention Prat is riding? Spiritual Warrior won going almost gate to wire here August 3rd and D’Amato (in the trainer title race) cuts back from that mile race for here, is 25% 2nd time grass, 26% winner last maiden race and is moving up in class. The race history, the types of horses here and the potential prices means we should spread here! Of course spreading here means we now need a good single to keep the bet price manageable.

 

Pick 4 I need a single is race 9 Trustworthy who is moving up in class off a dominating 9 length win last out. Desormeaux is 60% (3 of 5) for this trainer

 

Longshots of the Day:

Race 2: See Above

Race 3: Come On In, I debated singling the fav in this race then I saw Roman is riding for Miyadi and we have hit big time on this tandem in recent months, Miyadi does not give hints on morning works for live horses, Roman riding is the clue! I hope we get better than 5-1.

Race 4: Next Speaker, lost by a head going 6 1/2 last out to a horse who ran 2nd yesterday, trainer is 33% 2nd off the claim, from this post Van Dyke will use his speed and try to go gate to wire and the cutback in distance looks perfect

Race 6: Alluring Star, Baffert has another in here with Bejarano riding but this horse cost $850k in March, would love to see Talamo get rides here and if the price creeps higher than 5-1 I would be all over it as this “other Baffert” is intriguing!

Race 7: Chris and Dave, trainer has only sent out 15 horses but is winning 27% with a 4-2-1 record, won last out on turf after a second prior on dirt, Edwin is 2 for 4 for the trainer and this 8-1 price seems like a gift

Race 8: Fashion Business is my upset special for the G2 today, surged late in last to lose by a head after hoping at the start and lost by a head surging in the race prior to that. Talamo is riding great and he will have speed to flatter his fly from the clouds stretch run and we likely get better than this great 6-1 morning line. Horses prices over 5-1 win this race 53% of the time

Race 9: Go Ghetto, moves up in class off a win last out for Stevens who is 2 for 5 (40%) with this trainer who has a 4-0-1 record from the last 12 races so he is hot! The 1st and second choices look very tough to beat in this race but at 12-1 morning line this horse is tough to ignore

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 with horses listed in preference.

1,8,3

5,6,10

9,3,6

2,6,8

 

 

Today’s Pick 5 will cost $40 with horses listed in preference

1,5

1,2,5,9,6

4,7

9,2 (9 is a single if you want more coverage in other legs)

12,7 (6,9)

 

Race 6:

3,5,7

 

 

 

Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”