UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES
We have a nice 10 race card today with lots of longshots sprinkled throughout. The Pick 4 has some great fields so I am going with my standard three horses in each race approach and going with a good mix of favorites and longshots. We have a very competitive G1 Bing Crosby in race 9 with the Breeders Cup Sprint champ Drefong racing for the 1st time since that race for Baffert and Smith. Last year they gave him a start at Santa Anita before here but we get a series of bullet works. This tandem shocked the world last week when Arrogate bombed so again I think this favorite is very vulnerable with Roy H running. Roy won last out at Belmont and Lopez flies out to race here and is 3 of 4 for Miller. Miller has been chilly this far here so I am also using Ransom the Moon who has run second or 1st and whom this 6 furlong distance may be ideal today.
Today’s Full Card including the Pick 6 is only $8
None today – longshot shopping
Longshots of the Day:
Race 1: Warrior’s Lullaby debuts for Ruis with Chantal riding and they are 29% for a big ROI and a sharp workout here last week, trainer has already won at a big price debuts in maiden special weights
Race 2: Pattin for a Dance, won last race in November at Del Mar and was claimed away from Desormeaux and hit the bench, regular works since May we got longshot rider Iggy who caught fire last summer
Race 3: Incredible Luck, scratched out of a turf race yesterday to run in this stakes race, Blanc has won last 2 on this horse with two seconds prior, early speed with rails out for a trainer 18% winner last race, we get 8-1 or higher
Race 5: Goncharova, Prat 8-1 on debut turfer for a trainer he is 5 of 10 for, sharp work and Prat/Callaghan are 2-1 from the last 3 starts
Race 6: Little Jude, Roman has ridden half the horses prior in this race and chooses the Miller horse he won in May, moving up in class with a sharp work Roman/Miller are 39%
Race 8: Moonlight Blue, Cerin races the favorite in here with Prat riding, this is the “other” Cerin and as hot as he has been we have to look, 3rd start off the bench and ran here last summer under bug boy Lindsay, gets another weight break today with Solis and check out that 5 fl 59 second workout on July 14th, this race has been won by horses over 10-1 two of six and it seems his best races come with weight breaks like today (SCRATCHED – use TRUE VALOR)
Race 10: Mucho Chrome, a light bulb has gone off since switching to turf in the last 2 races with a win last out on the Hill from a pressing position and a closing 3rd in the race prior. Moving up in class for a trainer 21% turf we get a 20-1 morning line and a great post position to stay in the pace brigade and give us a big win in a race longshots win 26% of the time!
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 with horses listed in preference.
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”