07-23-2017 Del Mar Full Card

Well that was a tough one yesterday going 3 of 4 but being right that Arrogate would have the Dubai bounce but choosing the wrong horse to beat him. I did the “other” Baffert and that was it! Arrogate was off since March, didn’t start training till June and clearly showed he was not ready. It is tough for horses to race in Dubai and come back and win Stateside next out – California Chrome being one of the rare ones. Arrogate finishing 4th resulted in the largest ever show payout at Del Mar as well! On to the Sunday card we go and this is a very nice card today!

 

It’s Buy One Get One Sundays! Buy today’s full card and get the Wednesday card for free!

 

http://californiapick4.com/handicapping-products/

 

In race 1 horses over 5-1 have won 50% of the time and 20% have been over 10-1 from a large sample.

 

Pick 4 I need a single is Hard Arch in race 6 for Cerin and owner Wilson who are 3 of 4 at the meet so far. Ran 2nd slightly longer last out after losing the whip in the stretch and getting caught. If that’s not your cup of tea there is Sircat Sally in race 7 who is unbeaten after 7 races but winning streaks come to an end here many times! If you chose to single this guy the Pick 4 bet drops to $24

 

Best Bets:

None today – longshot shopping

 

Longshots of the Day:

Race 1: Dancing Belle, Desormeaux has been riding every Hess horse thus far at Del Mar for naught but in this debut race he chooses his brothers mount over the Hess, 3rd start and stretching out from a 3rd place finish at 5 fl last

Race 3: Street Lad, Hollendorfer horse has won 2 of last 3 gate to wire at Golden Gate, tries turf for the 1st time but has turf winners in blood lines and was beat on the line in a Grade 3 last out. Has won from the 1 post as well and we get 15-1 in a stakes race that have a tendency to throw off longshots here at Del Mar

Race 4: Camino de Estrella, 10-1 morning line for a Prat ridden horse who ran 2nd last out going longer but was neck n neck in the stretch cuts back to 6 fl for a trainer 26% off the bench

Race 5: Little Scotty, 10-1 morning line off a win last out rising in class for Sadler who is 25% claim repeat, 15% winner last race and with Baze is 22%

Race 6: The Union Forever, D’Amato drops him multiple classes a move he is 40% on, 22% 3rd off the layoff. This is strictly a price play in case the standout horse Hard Arch misfires. Exacta box using both these guys plus the highest 2 prices post time for a superfecta box

Race 7: Enthrall, ships in from France off a win June 23, rises in class and no listed workouts here and they attract Bejarano so they see something here. That’s a lot of coin to ship out from France to Del Mar – owner wants to be seen in the winners circle here! Trainer is 21% 1st start, 17% shipping, I am thinking we get better than the 5-1 morning line

Race 8: Superior Status, won her debut here last August then hit the shelf till now, regular works since May including a best of 47 on July 7th. We get 10-1 in a race you know they were targeting and races protected too

Race 9: Indoctrination, 1st time Irish ran 2nd in May down the rode from where I grew up in Ireland, 1st time Lasix, D’Amato is 19% off the bench, turf winners in bloodline. Scratched out yesterday to race today, I think he is going to be live at a big price

 

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $48 with horses listed in preference.

9,3

7,4,8,3

9,3,4

2,3,8,10

 

 

Today’s Pick 5 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference

8,6,3 (1)

4,5

7,2,1

6,1,9

4,10

 

Alternative Pick 5 using race 1 price stats costs $16:

All

4

7,1

6,1

4

 

Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”