UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES:
Race 3 new pick is 6,2
Pick 4 additions increase bet to $40
Its Opening Day at Del Mar for one of my favorite meets of the year. Giant fields await us in the Pick 4 today and that is likely to continue for the 1st couple of weeks. Del Mar is a very interesting track where, as a handicapper, you must keep an open mind and absolutely must use prices in your selections. Del Mar is THE social track in the US. Trainers and owners come here to WIN and to be seen. Three legged, poor form on paper horses win a lot of races here. Owners want to be seen in the winners circle here at Del Mar. What I am trying to say is don’t discount any horse here, especially ones who showed good form earlier this year or last year. Del Mar has also been a track where hot jockeys and trainers are must watches. Bejarano, Prat and the Hess/Desormeaux tandem, Miller/Arroya and of course the red hot apprentice Roman have to be paid close attention too. The Ship N Win program was boasted this year as well so look for those live longshot horses shipping in. Even betting names you like can work for a price here! Last year we hit some very large Pick 5 and Pick 4 bets so lets get down to business with today’s card!
Race 8 the Oceanside Stakes has been run 16 times and the favorite has never won, horses over 10-1 have won 38%! This is a longshot shopping race.
For those of you new to my selections let me give you the quick tour. I like to keep my tickets on the low end with a mix of live long shots and favorites. For the Pick 4 I like to keep the bet around $40 and this gives us 3 horse coverage in each race. For the Pick 5 $54 or less is what I am aiming for which gives us excellent coverage with a chance for some big pays. Horses are listed in preference so if you have a smaller bankroll you can remove horses.
Get my Full Card including the Pacific Classic for one low price opening week! Del Mar is where the big prices usually hit and where our biggest wins have come!
Pick 4 I need a single is Private Terrace race 10, the final race in the sequence today. Trained by Diordoro who is 26% shipping, 23% off the bench, 26% 2nd off the claim and 21% for the year. Simply put based on stats a standout on paper looking for that Ship N Win money! In this race too however is a protected horse off the bench after 9 months at 5-1, Preacher Roe. This race is won by horses 5-1 to 10-1 a nice 27%. Regular works since May, running protected on OPENING DAY at Del Mar for a trainer 36% 2nd off the claim makes you think possibly live.
None today – longshot shopping
Longshots of the Day:
Race 1: Post Rock, this race is won by horses over 5-1 a big 57% and over 10-1 its 21%. Trainer is 18% shipping in
Race 2: Holdthismiss, trainer is shipping in from Golden Gate and is 30% shipping, brings his jockey and they are 29% for a nice ROI adn we get two bullet works into this race
Race 4: Unlucky Hillary, name play plus horses over 10-1 have win 31% of the time in this race, owner is trainer and hits with bombs with a positive return on investment across all categories and is 20% sprints
Race 5: Broome, Miller debuter at 8-1 with sharp works and Arroya riding
Race 7: Karma King, Koriner/E-racing/Theriot were on fire last summer at Del Mar on longshots for us, horse has 3 wins and 2 seconds from 5 at Del Mar, 2nd off the bench after racing 2nd opening day last year for a trainer 25% on this move
Race 8: Allaboutmike is the other Miller horse with Maldonado riding and looking for the 3rd win in a row on the turf and 4oth of 5. Rising in class off two straight wins on the Hillside course has prove he can go gate to wire or stalk and pounce which could be ideal in this race and we also get a sharp workout into this race. In this race Reign On #15 is an AE but if he gets in add this second time US start Euro runner
Race 9: Adriot, Desormeaux/Truman are 2 of 4 on price horses, sharp work for this race from a trainer who has a poor debut win percentage of 6% but it is Del Mar and Mommy has 5 winners from 6 horses
Race 10: Preacher Roe, 5-1 not exactly a big price but he runs protected for a trainer 36% second off the bench
Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40 with horses listed in preference.
Alternative Pick 4 going ALL in Race 8 Oceanside Stakes costs $32
Today’s Pick 5 will cost $54 with horses listed in preference
Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.
For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.
When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.
Irish horse racing saying –
“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”
“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”