Santa Anita 04-30-2017 Free Plays

I like this card a lot today so going back to my normal bet size for the Pick 4.

 

In race 7 the favorite has a 25% win rate from 28 races but horses over 5-1 have won 50% of those races and over 10-1 the win rate is 32%. We have a short field in this race and the highest price is 6-1, that being Mr. Opportunistic who has ties the best speed figure, comes in 2nd start of the bench with a best of 42 workout last week for Gonzalez/Sadler who are 2 of 3 with a nice ROI and the horse has a 2-1 from 3 starts record at the distance.

 

 

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Possible singles today:

In race 3 St. Reno comes in off a win last out leading gate to wire going 6 1/2 so the cut back today can only help. Gonzalez is 2 of 3 for Sadler. For a possibly better price I am also going to use Cherokee Dynasty who won last out going 5 1/2 but flew down the lane from 5th and five wide to win so the added distance and better price than the fav looks juicy here. Moving up in class for Miyadi who is 24% claim repeat. If you want to keep the ticket price low today who can look to single the favorite.

 

In race 4 Monterey Shale is the winless from 11 starts 5/2 favorite but Bejarano rides through the claim for trainer Stute who is 29% 1st off the claim

 

 

Longshots of the Day: Win/place bets on these

Race 2: Private Terrace, at 4-1 not exactly a longshot but I prefer this over the 1st and second choices today, Prat rides for Dorf off the claim and protected and this tandem is 1 of 3 recently and 53% over the meet,

Race XX

Race XX

Race 8: Mr. Opportunistic – read above

Race 9: XX

 

Today’s Late Pick 4 will cost $40.50 with horses listed in preference.

2,9,8

4,XX

4,5,6

4,XX

 

Today’s Pick 5 will cost $36 with horses listed in preference.

XX

4,5

5,3

XXX

XXX

 

Horses listed in brackets are for added coverage if wanted and for exotics.

 

For races where I only have one or two selections I usually like to KEY the top choice  with the second choice and an outside for trifectas.

 

When I have three horses selected in a Pick 4 or Pick 5 consider them for Trifecta boxes and for superfecta boxes use the 3 selections with the highest priced horse with good form or top tier jockeys riding, especially if they give a price. Rolling Pick 3 and doubles using selections.

 

Irish horse racing saying –

“Bíonn grásta Dé idir an dialait agus an talamh.”

“The grace of God is found between the saddle and the ground.”